Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 012158 CCA
ESFIWX

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
442 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 day Probabilistic
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations in the
Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for
the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. In the table
below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the chance the
river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in the next
90 days.

For example, the Maumee River at Fort Wayne, Indiana has a flood
stage of 17 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance
the river will rise to or above 18.5 feet.

Bluffton, Indiana on the Wabash River has a flood stage of 10 feet.
In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the river will rise
to or above 11.1 feet.


 Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
 ...Valid March 8 2018 - June 6 2018...

Maumee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Ohio
Montpelier OH     12.0     8.9 10.1 10.9 12.2 12.9 13.9 14.9
Newville IN       12.0     9.5 10.5 12.0 12.7 13.8 14.7 15.4
St. Joe Ft W. IN  12.0     4.6  5.4  7.5  9.5 11.2 14.6 16.5


Saint Marys River
Decatur IN        17.0     8.5 10.2 12.9 14.7 17.2 20.1 20.6
Muldoon Bridge IN 14.0     5.6  6.7  8.2  9.8 11.3 15.9 16.8


Maumee River
Fort Wayne IN     17.0     7.5  9.6 12.2 14.7 17.4 18.5 20.5
Defiance OH       10.0     3.4  4.1  5.1  6.2  7.0  8.9 10.0
Napoleon OH       12.0     4.8  6.0  7.9  9.7 11.5 13.6 14.2


Tiffin River
Stryker OH        11.0     9.9 11.4 13.0 13.8 14.4 15.8 16.7


Blanchard River
Ottawa OH         23.0    17.6 18.0 20.2 21.5 23.2 24.7 25.1


Auglaize River
Fort Jennings OH  13.0     6.1  7.5  8.8 11.8 13.7 15.5 16.4
Defiance OH       21.0    10.6 11.6 13.3 15.6 17.4 20.5 20.9


Upper Wabash River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Wabash River
Linn Grove IN     11.0     7.7  8.3  9.0 10.1 11.2 12.5 12.7
Bluffton IN       10.0     5.9  6.8  8.1  9.7 11.1 12.7 13.4
Wabash IN         14.0     8.7  9.3 10.6 11.3 12.3 13.8 14.8
Logansport IN     15.0     7.3  7.8  8.3  8.6  9.8 10.8 11.1


Tippecanoe River
Ora IN            12.0    11.7 11.8 12.1 13.1 13.8 14.1 15.7
Winamac IN        10.0     9.1  9.3  9.6 10.8 11.6 12.1 15.7


Mississinewa River
Marion IN         12.0     3.7  4.6  5.5  6.6  7.9  9.4 10.2


Eel River
N. Manchester IN  11.0     6.8  9.0 10.3 11.2 12.7 14.4 15.4


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more
years of climatological data including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete
range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long
range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...
Snow cover is zero across the entire basin and the soil remains
thawed. Current soil moisture is much above normal due to recent
rainfall events. Infiltration of rainfall from future precipitation
events will generate a larger than normal ground water runoff
response due to the wet soils.

...Weather Outlook...
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook indicates
that there is 33 to 40 percent chance for below normal precipitation.
There is no specific signal for above, below or near normal
temperatures. The CPC experimental week 3 through 4 outlook indicates
a slight chance for below normal precipitation and no specific
signal for above, below, or near normal temperatures.

...River Conditions...
Area rivers were experiencing quite above normal streamflow with some
rivers near flood stage in the Wabash river basin and near flood to
minor flooding across the Maumee river basin.

...Overall Flood Risk...
Given initial wet soils and above normal streamflow there is a high
potential for renewed minor to moderate river flooding through March.
Thereafter, the overall flow risk will trend more closer to normal,
but likely remain slightly elevated in comparison to normal.

...Flood Terminology...
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary
roads.

This will be the last long-range probabilistic outlook for the Upper
Wabash and Maumee river basins for 2018.

$$
Murphy
Corrected valid time



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