644
FXUS64 KJAN 032000
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
300 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Tonight through Sunday night...Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occuring across much of the area this afternoon,
and this will continue before ending from west to east early this
evening. Skies may clear some overnight, and with good radiational
cooling patchy areas of dense fog will be possible early on
Saturday. An HWO graphic will be issued for this potential. Another
short wave will move into the area Saturday afternoon and this will
kick off another round of shower`s and storms. With a little better
lapse rate/instability on Saturday, a strong to possibly severe
storm cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon. Little will change on
Sunday as moisture continues and yet another in a series of short
waves move across the area. Drier air begins to move into the area
Sunday night. Highs through the weekend will be in the 80s, with
overnight lows in the mid 60s./15/

.DISCUSSION...Monday into Friday...the overall forecast for next
week remains similar. Focus will be well above normal/heat early
into mid week, potential for severe storms mainly in the Thu-Fri
periods, then followed by a marked cool down. The driver for the
increasing warmth will be with a pattern shift to more of a ridge
influence with the ridge axis over us Mon, then the ridge shifting
eastward as we see a powerful system dive across the Rockies and
Central Plains. We will be on the western periphery of the low level
ridge/high and that will provide a decent S/SW lower level flow to
bring in moisture and those well above normal lower level temps.
Additionally, we will see capping in play which will keep rain/storm
chances more in check. There`s some 20-30% type PoPs for Mon-Wed,
but this is more due to model variability and I expect this to lower
some. The exception could be in the far N, where more proximity to
the better lift could allow for better chances.

As for severe weather potential...this is mainly looking like
potential for a round or two sometime in the Thu/Fri periods. PoPs
have come in higher which fits and will follow. Look for chances to
continue to increase for a particular period as better timing starts
to work itself out. Like yesterday and prev guidance, uncertainty is
pretty decent on specifics and timing, which is often the case at
day 6-7. However, the pattern and consistency for the needed
ingredients (instability, steep lapse rates, moisture, shear, lift)
continue to show up. I`ll also add, later Wed night is a period to
watch as well as there will likely be severe activity on-going to
our NW/N which could migrate down into some of our northern area.
Lastly, the ingredients I noted are all reaching very solid levels
and fitting of a potentially upper end type event(s). Details will
determine the type of severe, but at this time, confidence is on
wind/hail.

In the wake of this system, the trends are for a solid front/trough
passage for the weekend which would bring much cooler conditions to
the area. /CME/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail across TAF sites this
afternoon and this will continue through much of the day as
showers/thunderstorms move across the area. The bulk of the storms
will move east of the area this evening, but expect stratus/fog
to develop overnight after 09-10Z with sites becoming IFR/LIFR.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  64  86  66 /  80  10  40  30
Meridian      85  63  88  65 /  70  30  40  30
Vicksburg     81  64  86  67 /  80  10  40  30
Hattiesburg   84  65  88  66 /  50  10  30  10
Natchez       80  64  86  65 /  60  10  40  30
Greenville    80  66  84  67 /  60  20  40  40
Greenwood     81  65  84  67 /  80  30  40  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/CME/