423
FXUS62 KJAX 091230
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
830 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 830 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through around 14Z at SSI.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through around 21Z. A
Mesoscale Convective System is expected to race southeastward
towards the terminals late this afternoon through around sunset.
Confidence in impacts remains a little too low for TEMPO groups at
this time, but we did insert PROB30 groups for wind gusts of 30-45
knots, along with IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings as this
squall line potentially moves across the terminals from around 22Z
through 02Z. TEMPO groups for this time frame will likely be
included for the regional TAF sites in the 18Z TAF package.
MVFR to IFR ceilings will then overspread the regional terminals
after 06Z through around sunrise on Friday. Southwesterly surface
winds of 5-10 knots early this morning will strengthen to around
15 knots and gusty before 16Z, with surface winds then shifting to
southerly at 10-15 knots at SGJ after 18Z due to a pinned Atlantic
sea breeze boundary being pinned near the coast. A period of
breezy northerly surface winds can be expected in the 01Z-05Z time
frame in the wake of the squall line/MCS passage, and this will
be addressed in the 18Z TAF package. Otherwise, southwesterly
winds of 5-10 knots will resume around or after 06Z Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Potential for strong to severe storms building today as a large
positively tilted upper-level trough ahead of an advancing cold
front presses down over inland southeast Georgia and into
northeast Florida. Severe storms are more likely to occur over SE
Georgia this afternoon with damaging winds, hail, and isolated
tornado developments as the most likely threats associated with
severe level storms today. Storms are still possible but with a
lower probability of forming further southward into NE Florida
with convection expected to disperse out in the evening and
overnight hours. Breezy winds will build in from out of the west
today, with the prevailing flow, influenced by high pressure
ridging from out of the south, will act to inhibit the development
of the diurnal east coast sea breeze. High temperatures today
will reach up into the lower to mid 90s for both inland and
coastal locations. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into
the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

The second round of severe storms associated with a prefrontal
MCV darting from the west is expected during the morning hours
Friday. There remains substantial uncertainty yielding a fairly
low- confidence forecast. That stated, scattered severe storms
will be possible once again for the second time in about a 12 hour
stretch and similarly the primary threat being damaging straight-
line winds up to 50-70 mph. If this prefrontal complex of storms
fizzles out or under performs, it is more likely that stronger
convection will fire off later in the day as the cold front begins
to press in from the north during the afternoon and evening
hours. Though damaging winds will be the mostly likely form of
severe weather, potential for hail and isolated tornadoes cannot
be ruled out. The cold front and associated convection is expected
to exit to the south Friday evening with a drier airmass clearing
the skies in its wake. Temperatures will be on the warm side
again Friday ahead of the frontal passage with highs in the
low/mid 80s in SE GA and mid/upper 80s to near 90 in NE FL.

Dry northwesterly flow working around a ridge of high pressure
building from the west will lead to fair weather conditions
through the weekend with high temps spanning the 80s each day and
lows dropping down into the upper 50s for inland areas Sunday
morning under clear skies and light drainage winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

A wet and unsettled pattern is setting up for next week as a
parade of disturbances lined up one after the next track across
Florida and areas of the Southeastern US. Guidance is fairly
consistent on the first system arriving Monday afternoon and
evening as a wave of low pressure rides along a lifting warm
front. As that warm front lifts across the region, a moist and
unstable airmass will become established which will support an
increasing thunderstorm potential throughout next week. Though
there is increasing spread among guidance by Tuesday, there is
general consensus that an upper trough will swing into the
Southeast, enhancing forcing and shear to perhaps invoke strong to
severe convection. Uncertainty increases further Wednesday and
Thursday but it appears another upper level system will track
across the northern GOMEX and bring additional rain to the region.
Soils are fair receptive to rain and should be able to soak up
the predicted precip; however, the potential for flooding will be
increasing given the back-to-back nature of the systems.
Temperatures will trend near normal through Tuesday and then trend
upward thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward
across the Florida peninsula through tonight. Southerly evening
wind surges are expected this evening, bringing wind speeds close
to Caution levels for the offshore waters. Meanwhile, a trough
ahead of strong cold front will enter the southeastern states on
Thursday night, with chances for showers and thunderstorms
increasing ahead of this boundary from this afternoon through
Friday evening. A few rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible during this time frame, with damaging wind gusts,
hail, and frequent lightning strikes possible within any severe
thunderstorms that develop. The cold front will cross our local
waters by late night Friday, with high pressure then gradually
building to the north of our area later this weekend and early
next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for NE FL beaches today and Wednesday.
Moderate risk for SE GA beaches today with minor risk on
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Hot and humid conditions with breezy southwesterly winds in place
ahead of a cold front expected to pass through on Friday.
Multiple round of strong to severe thunderstorms between this
afternoon and Friday evening. Due to enhanced winds high
dispersions are expected this afternoon and again Friday across
inland northeast FL. Over the weekend, a drier airmass will lower
humidity to near critical levels. Despite low humidity, winds
aren`t expected to be strong enough to warrant elevated fire
weather conditions. A wet and stormy pattern is setting up next
week.

REMARKS...Significant fog is not expected to develop over the
next few days. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable
of damaging outflow winds up to 70 mph, hail, and isolated
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and again Friday ahead
of and with the aforementioned cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Thursday, May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday, May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  86  61 /  50  50  90  10
SSI  93  71  86  64 /  30  40  90  20
JAX  96  71  89  64 /  20  20  90  30
SGJ  95  73  91  67 /  10  20  70  40
GNV  92  71  88  64 /  10  10  80  30
OCF  92  73  89  68 /  10   0  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$