168
FXUS62 KJAX 111901
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
301 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure fills in behind the cold front providing the region
with mostly sunny skies for today. Winds have shifted to the
northwest with the sea-breeze steadily making its way inland to
the I-95 corridor. Temperatures for SE GA will be in the low 80s
while NE FL will see temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s,
sticking to the lower 80s along the coast. Overnight temperatures
for SE GA will be in the mid to upper 50s while NE FL will range
in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

We still see high pressure ridge at the surface over the area
as mean mid level troughing continues to shift further offshore
of the east coast. Mid to upper level ridge moves into the central
Gulf coast, but shortwave energy moves into the western Gulf by
Sunday aftn. This latter feature will translate eastward to the
lower MS valley by late Sunday night into Monday morning. As this
happens, a warm front will lift up into our southern zones Monday
morning. The warm front will likely lift up north of the area
Monday night.

Should be dry on Sunday but will see increasing mid to high clouds
through the day with warm temps in the 80s, near 90 over the far
south zones. Sunday night, increasing clouds expected as the
aforementioned shortwave trough and warm front approach the area,
but some sprinkles will be possible. Nearly all models keep any
rain associated with the warm front and shortwave to the west of
the area through the night. Min temps mild in the 60s.

Monday, low level flow is turned to the southeast to south as the
warm front lifts through the area. Mid to upper level flow backs
in response to shortwave energy traversing the area and PWATs
increase to around 1.5 to 1.6 inches. This pattern in combination
with the warm front and potentially both west and east coast sea
breezes supports chance of showers and storms, mainly starting in
the aftn. For this forecast update, will trend toward higher POPs
Monday. Instability looks too weak to support severe storm development.
Highs on Monday in the lower 80s across the north, and about 90 or
lower 90s over the southern most zones.

Monday night, warm front may lift up into southeast GA. This
coupled with further moisture increases and upper level divergence
suggests high rain chances. Not much instability to work with amid
bulk shear of about 50-65 kt, but we can`t rule out a strong/severe
storm or two, though location of this potential is uncertain at this
time. Warmer overnight lows in the mid 60s to near 70 anticipated
due to abundant cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Warm front is forecast to lift northward on Tuesday, as a cold
front advances eastward from the lower MS valley and the TN valley.
Fairly widespread showers and embedded storms are anticipated
ahead of the cold front and in association with the lifting warm
front. Overall, best rain chances look generally to be from I-10
northward. Strong to severe storms will be possible, but confidence
is on the low side. If the threat will be there, it could extend
into Tuesday night and possible Wed morning, mainly across northeast
FL, per a blended forecast from the GFS and ECMWF.

The cold front should be located in the forecast region Wednesday
and likely push south of the forecast area by mid to late afternoon
hours. As the front moves south, this will result in a drying
airmass from the north-northwest rest of Wednesday afternoon and
into Thursday as weak high pressure builds in temporarily.
However, the this respite from the rain chances looks short-lived,
as the front just to our south works back to the north late
Thursday into Friday. The next cold frontal system looks to
develop to our west and increase rain chances again on Friday.
Confidence though at this time frame is low with GFS and ECMWF
differing on how much moisture will available.

In terms of temps, a spread in highs Tuesday with high in the
lower 80s north zones and up to lower 90s over the far southeast
zones. More homogeneous temps Wed in the mid to upper 80s, and
warmer on Thursday with highs that may near record highs. May be
near and above average on Friday as well. May be near record high
min temps over northeast FL Tue-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions today with some scattered cumulus around 3,500ft at
sites near the coast. Winds have shifted to the northwest for
inland locations, while the northeasterly sea-breeze has made its
way in to the sites along the coast. Winds are ranging between
5-10 knots but will decrease to around 5 knots tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Weak high pressure fills in behind the cold front that has made its
way through the region and will stick around through Sunday.
Onshore winds will strengthen Monday afternoon as the aforementioned
front lifts back to the north as a warm front. Showers and storms
will spread out over our local waters Monday afternoon and into
the evening as the warm front lifts northward through the local
waters. Tuesday, The front stalls just north over the local waters
as several rounds of heavy showers and storms push across the
area through Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Low to moderate rip currents today and Sunday with
Moderate risk settling in Monday for the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  85  63  83 /   0   0  10  60
SSI  64  84  70  81 /   0   0  10  50
JAX  61  86  67  86 /   0   0  10  50
SGJ  65  84  69  85 /   0  10  10  50
GNV  60  87  65  90 /   0  10  10  60
OCF  63  89  67  92 /   0  10   0  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$