578
FXUS62 KKEY 280847
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
447 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
It has been a muggy and windy night across the Florida Keys. Deep
layer ridging across the Eastern Seaboard along with its
associated surface high just off the southeast New England
coast has a solid grip on our sensible weather. Fresh to strong
easterly breezes have slackened a few knots on our offshore
marine observation platforms since yesterday evening but still
result in a windy start to today across the island chain. Last
night`s remaining showers stayed south and west of the island
chain before decaying as breezes declined resulting in a loss of
speed convergence. Temperatures across the island chain are on the
warmer side due to our elevated winds with values either at or
slightly above 75 degrees and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.

While we did see a reduction in wind speeds from yesterday, fresh
to occasionally strong breezes are expected to last through today
and into tonight. The surface high will remain generally
undisturbed by a vigorous mid-latitude wave progressing into the
Ohio River Valley today resulting in our persistent wind
forecast. Looking upstream of these easterly breezes, CIMSS MIMIC
PW notes scattered values above 1 inch progged to advect into our
area. While these values are largely unimpressive, CAMs suggest
the development of some isolated showers throughout today as
temperatures rise calling for slight chance PoPs a touch above
normal for today and into tonight.

Come Monday, the deep layer ridging will shift into the western
North Atlantic. Its associated surface high will be displaced
south under the progressive mid-latitude wave thus weakening the
pressure gradient (and thus our winds) over the Keys to start the
week. From there, we find ourselves in a fairly benign and stable
pattern. Easterly breezes will promote rain chances normal for
this time of year as the more progressive weather systems remain
well north of our area. While the surface high will retreat east
further into the North Atlantic in the middle of the week, the
next fluctuation in wind speed looks to be towards the end of the
forecast period in which another ridge sets up along the Eastern
Seaboard.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal
waters. From synopsis, a sprawling high pressure system centered
southeast of New England will maintain fresh to strong easterly
breezes today through Sunday night. As the high presses south into
the western North Atlantic, breezes will slacken, although
occasionally fresh breezes will continue through the first half of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. With that
said, there will continue to be a slight chance for brief spells of
sub VFR conditions due to passing weak to moderate showers. This
shower activity will be driven by strong easterly flow. Expect
surface winds to be 15 to 20 knots with frequent gusts of 25 to 30
knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The Key West International Airport recorded .01 inches of rain
yesterday. This is the first measurable precipitation recorded at
the airport since .55 inches was recorded on April 4th, over three
weeks ago.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  74  83  75 /  20  20  10  10
Marathon  83  74  85  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....11

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