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000
FXUS63 KLBF 241741
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms possible tonight, mainly west and south.

- Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night over most of the
forecast area.

- Wetting rains expected Friday, and again on Sunday with a reprieve
Saturday in between upper level systems.

- Mainly dry and seasonal Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

H5 pattern tonight had a fairly low amplitude pattern
across the CONUS. A shortwave trough of low pressure was present
from the UP of Michigan south to around Chicago. Low amplitude
ridging was present from northern New Mexico, north-northwest into
Alberta Canada. Further west, a closed low was located approximately
600 miles off the central coast of California. Overnight, some mid
and high level clouds, in association with a weak upper level
disturbance, were traversing the central plains. Across southwestern
Nebraska into northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas, some
showers were present on radar with the bulk of this activity not
reaching the surface. At the surface, weak high pressure was present
over north central Nebraska overnight. Skies were partly to mostly
cloudy with thicker clouds noted in SW Nebraska. Temperatures as of
3 AM CDT, ranged from 33 degrees at Broken Bow to 48 degrees at
Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Surface high pressure will track into the upper Mississippi
valley today. On the back side of the exiting high, southerly
winds will increase, and by afternoon, we could see some gusts
eclipse 30 MPH in the west per the latest NAM12 bufkit sounding
data. With the increasing southerly winds this afternoon and
favorable mixing, highs should reach into the lower 70s across
the west. Further east with lighter winds, highs will be in the
mid to upper 60s. Mid level ridging will become centered from
the Texas Panhandle north into the western Dakotas tonight.
Southerly winds will continue across the area, which will make
for a mild night across the area with lows in the middle to
upper 40s. Mid level warm air advection will increase this
evening in the panhandle, transitioning to the east southeast
overnight. This will lead to an increased threat for elevated
thunderstorms tonight from the panhandle into southwestern and
south central Nebraska. This convection will also be supported
by a the development of a low level jet later tonight. ATTM,
this appears to nose into south central Nebraska. The 06z HRRR,
00z NAM12 and the 00z GFS show an area of QPF from the panhandle
into north central Kansas and south central Nebraska overnight.
With this in mind and the degree of elevated forcing, will opt
for some chance pops tonight in the before mentioned areas. As
for the severe threat, steep mid level lapse rates are noted
later tonight, particularly from southwestern Nebraska into
northwestern Kansas. This would favor a hail threat. Confidence
in this threat however is low as low level moisture return will
lag this forcing, not expected to arrive until the day on
Thursday. On Thursday, a strong mid level trough will lift into
the southern Rockies. This feature will deepen a surface low
over east central Colorado. During the day, increasing
southeasterly winds will force low level moisture into the area
along with a good chance for low level cloudiness Thursday. The
latest high res models continue to hint at this low level
cloudiness with it expected to persist into the afternoon hours.
This will lead to cooler highs with readings in the lower 60s
forecast for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Based on the latest CAMS, convection should develop INVOF the
dryline around 23z Thursday. This feature is expected to extend
from Sterling Colorado, south to just east of the
Colorado/Kansas border. As this activity lifts to the northeast
into southwestern and south central Nebraska, very steep mid
level lapse rates will support a large hail threat. There will
also be a tornado threat, mainly across far southern portions of
the forecast area, where low level helicities are most
favorable. This may become enhanced further, if a warm front
resides in the vicinity of this helicity max. The upper level
trough and low will lift from northeastern Colorado, crossing
Nebraska on Friday. This will be the best chance for wetting
rains with this system. After quieter conditions Saturday, a
second upper level trough will cross the area Saturday night
into Sunday. With the track of this system, the main severe
threat will be well east of the forecast area. However, another
round of wetting rain appears likely as a nice zone of
deformation precipitation develops across the area. The latest
NBM probabilistic forecast for 72 hr precip. ending at 12z
Sunday has an 85-95 percent chance of better than a half an inch
of QPF across the entire forecast area. At a threshold of 1
inch, the probability drops off to 40 to 60 percent. In
addition, we may need to watch the southwestern portion of the
CWA as there is now a slight risk for excessive rainfall from
12z Saturday through 12z Sunday. Beyond Sunday conditions will
dry out with highs Monday in the mid 60s and lower 70s and
Tuesday`s readings in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the afternoon into the
evening. Then lower cigs will move in overnight with MVFR
conditions possible by mid morning across much of western and
north central Nebraska, including KVTN and KLBF terminals. Winds
will remain strong out of the south this afternoon through early
evening with gust of 25 kts or greater.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Gomez