097
FXUS64 KLCH 030438
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1138 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

This evening`s upper air sounding still shows a rather moist air
mass in place with deep southerly flow. With left over surface
boundaries and expected increase in nocturnal jet overnight, would
expect nocturnal showers to develop over the Gulf before daybreak
and move inland. This activity is expected to increase in areal
coverage and intensity throughout the morning as an upper level
impulse approaches the forecast area. Main concern will be heavy
rainfall over already saturated grounds and areas with high
hydrologic flows.

Overall forecast is on track and only minor adjustments made,
mainly to timing of pops from latest CAM guidance.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

As of 330CDT we are seeing showers and storms begin to taper
across the area, with a wake low forming over the northern tier
of the CWA. We will continue to see tapering across the area this
evening, however another round of showers and storms will ramp
tomorrow morning thanks to yet another disturbance. Tomorrow night
we shall see another lull in activity, which is likely to persist
into Saturday afternoon before isolated showers return to the
northern half of the CWA.

While rainfall amounts tomorrow and Saturday are not expected to
be as copious as what we have seen today, we continue to stress
that any additional rainfall amounts will exacerbate current
flooding.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The long-term portion of the forecast period begins with the
potential for yet another wet day, especially for the far nrn
areas, as we`ll see the interaction of an approaching/passing mid-
level shortwave with a stalled/decaying sfc boundary over the
region along with abundant Gulf moisture. Best rain chances will
come during the late morning/afternoon hours along with daytime
heating before lift wanes as the disturbance aloft departs.

For Monday, as the mid/upper-level trof pushes ewd out of the
Rockies, another weaker disturbance is progged to slip past the area,
with best dynamics staying to our north. However, could see enough
lift to go along with daytime heating to produce widely scattered
convection across our nern zones.

Thereafter, the remainder of the forecast period looks dry as a more
zonal flow is progged to develop aloft, with weak capping/limited
moisture aloft likely prohibiting convective development.

Expect to see a gradual warming trend through the long term as temps
creep upward to mins in the lower 70s/highs in the lower 90s.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Not a lot has changed in the thinking as far as the aviation
forecast goes. Low clouds have started to develop with KARA/KLFT
already at MVFR levels, and the other terminals should follow suit
over the next couple of hours.

The next issue will be the potential for redevelopment of shower
activity toward daybreak. With the very moist airmass staying
around and plenty of low level boundaries, nocturnal shower
activity is expected to move in at KBPT by 03/10z then spreading
to the other terminals after 03/13z. Convective activity is
expected to increase during the morning hours as an upper level
disturbance moves toward the area. MVFR to IFR conditions from
the showers and storms. Shower activity is expected to end during
the mid to late afternoon with some VFR conditions possible at the
terminals.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Isolated to slight showers and storms to continue across the
coastal waters this evening. We will see a brief lull in activity
overnight before another round tomorrow morning. Then another
quiet period starting tomorrow night. No Small Craft Advisory
criteria is anticipated with this disturbance. Otherwise, onshore
flow and mild conditions are anticipated through the rest of the

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  80  64  85 /  40  70  20  30
LCH  70  81  70  84 /  50  60   0  10
LFT  72  82  70  86 /  50  60  10  10
BPT  70  82  71  84 /  50  60   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...07