201
FXUS64 KLCH 151803
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
103 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A flood watch for excessive rainfall from showers/storms was
issued earlier this morning as multiple rounds of storms expected
Thursday into Friday.

For rest of today...beautiful weather. Warm temps, plenty of sun,
and TDs in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Surface high pressure nearly overhead this morning is yielding
clear skies and calm winds. Saturated soils are providing enough
moisture to once again produce patchy dense fog at this hour with
a couple of sights reporting visibilities of less than a mile.
Don`t expect dense fog to become widespread enough to warrant an
advisory, but will continue to monitor trends through the morning.
Visibilities should improve by 14Z as temperatures warm and mixing
gets underway. The remainder of the day is shaping up to be rather
pleasant, albeit a bit warm. Dewpoints in the lower 60s continue
to be a welcome reprieve from the upper 70s that were being
observed just a few days ago.

Another potentially hazardous weather event appears to be setting
up from Thursday afternoon through late Friday in two waves. The
first will be an upper level disturbance moving up the Texas gulf
coast and wrapping into a deepening shortwave moving across the
southern plains. There is good agreement amongst guidance that
moisture surging ahead of the wave will drive PWAT values to or
above 2 inches priming the atmosphere for torrential rainfall
producing storms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. WPC`s
moderate risk of excessive rainfall has been maintained this
morning as area soils and waterways remain full and flash flooding
could begin quickly. Severe weather parameters aren`t
particularly impressive with this first wave of activity, but a
couple of storms capable of damaging straight line winds can`t be
ruled out.

The second wave of convection will push through Friday as a weak
frontal boundary develops along the steadily deepening shortwave.
Guidance is much more variable on severe weather parameters with
this wave, but some are depicting considerably more favorable
shear and instability compared to this time yesterday. After
collaboration with SPC, a slight risk was introduced across the
entire region for Friday and should there be better consensus,
further upgrades wouldn`t be surprising for future forecast
packages. In addition to the severe weather threat, convection
will again be capable of producing torrential rainfall on top of
whatever falls Thursday maintaining a significant flash flood
threat.

A few showers could linger Friday night into early Saturday
morning within the wraparound moisture behind the fropa, but these
should be lighter and with a much lower severe potential. Little
change in airmass will occur with the fropa other than a very
modest drop in dewpoint Saturday with afternoon highs still
climbing into the upper 80s area wide.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The long term period starts with a few showers/storms from Friday`s
system lingering over the Atchafalaya Basin before departing
Saturday morning as the associated low aloft/sfc frontal boundary
make their way out of the region. With no real change of air mass,
Saturday looks to remain slightly on the warm side with highs
generally in the 85-90 degree range.

Thereafter, the remainder of the long term is progged to be dry as
ridging develops aloft. With rising heights aloft, expect a gradual
warming with highs generally in the lower 90s by the end of the
period. RH values will also be on the rise as sfc high pressure
swings past the area and a return flow off the Gulf develops in its
wake. Likewise, this warming trend will also occur with overnight
lows as mins are expected to run in the 70s by early next week on
account of the increasing dewpoints.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR today and into early tomorrow with increasing mid/upper level
cloudiness overnight. Low clouds increase tomorrow afternoon with
increasing chances for showers/storms. Best chance remains just
outside of current TAF forecast cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Light offshore flow will prevail today before turning onshore this
evening as high pressure slides east of the region. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday into Friday as
another low pressure system approaches the area. Drier conditions
are expected thereafter through next week along with light
onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  86  65  85 /   0  40  90  50
LCH  69  85  70  84 /   0  70  70  40
LFT  68  87  73  87 /   0  40  60  40
BPT  70  83  73  86 /  10  70  60  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for
     LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143-152-241>243.

TX...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for
     TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...66