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000
FXUS64 KLIX 171142
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
642 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Upper ridging continued across the Gulf of Mexico early this
morning. Upper shortwaves were noted over southern Minnesota and
over Saskatchewan into the Idaho Panhandle. Surface high pressure
continued to stretch from near Bermuda across the northern Gulf
Coast. A frontal boundary extended from Minnesota into the Texas
Panhandle. Skies were mostly cloudy at 3 AM CDT with temperatures
generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The shortwaves well to the north will attempt to suppress the
ridging over the Gulf the next couple days, but there isn`t likely
to be much impact on the local area. The frontal boundary, even
by Thursday evening, will remain north of Interstate 20. Forecast
soundings continue to show a comparatively dry airmass below 700
mb. While a sprinkle or two can`t be ruled out, especially over
southwest Mississippi, no significant rainfall is expected through
Thursday.

Warm weather will continue with highs generally in the 80s and
lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s, even with pretty extensive
high cloud cover. The verification trend over the last couple
days has been toward the warmer guidance, and see little reason to
change that.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The northern stream shortwaves will continue to suppress the Gulf
ridging southward into the weekend, setting up a quasi-zonal flow
across the northern Gulf Coast, and pushing the frontal boundary
south of Interstate 20 by Friday night or Saturday. This will
provide a bit of a focus for rainfall as early as Saturday
morning, but moreso from Saturday afternoon into midday Sunday as
a stronger southern stream shortwave moves across the area.
Showers and a few storms will be possible with this shortwave, but
any threat of widespread heavy rain or potential for severe
weather looks to be extremely limited at this point. After the
passage of the shortwave and front on Sunday, cooler and
noticeably drier air will arrive for Monday and Tuesday.

Guidance continues to advertise very warm weather ahead of the
frontal boundary with highs Friday well into the 80s across the
area. The NBM deterministic numbers still look a degree or two on
the high side for that day, but with somewhat less cloud cover
expected on Friday as compared to today and Thursday, we can`t
totally rule out one or two spots touching 90. Saturday/Sunday
high temperatures will be a function of the position of the
frontal boundary and timing of precipitation, but for most of the
area, there`s not really a large range in temperature guidance.
That can even be said for the cooler weather early next week,
which leaves no real targets of opportunity for significant
forecast improvement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Main concern over the next 3-6 hours will be flight restrictions
due to ceilings. At issuance time, KMCB was reporting IFR
ceilings, with the remaining terminals either MVFR or VFR. Once we
get a little surface heating this morning, most terminals will
report MVFR ceilings for a few hours before improving to VFR.
Similar to yesterday, the afternoon hours should see VFR
conditions with lower clouds eventually returning several hours
after sunset. Wind speeds toward sunrise Thursday are expected to
be a little lighter, which may increase the potential for
radiation fog vs low stratus. Will carry MVFR to IFR conditions
at most terminals beyond 09z Thursday, with LIFR or lower
conditions not totally ruled out, especially at KMCB.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Overall, marine conditions aren`t expected to produce major issues
for most of the forecast period. Winds could perhaps approach 15
knots on several occasions, but until the frontal boundary arrives
over the weekend, there isn`t even much of a threat of
thunderstorms. An increase in winds and rougher seas probably will
hold off until Sunday into Monday, when the front finally makes it
into the Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  65  83  64 /  10  10  10   0
BTR  87  70  88  69 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  83  67  85  66 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  84  70  85  70 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  79  67  81  67 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  82  65  83  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW