Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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966 FXUS64 KLIX 040837 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 337 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Mostly zonal flow to slight ridging will stay around the area today and into Sunday morning. This will mostly suppress any rain chances today and Sunday. However the moisture advection from southeasterly flow will produce some spotty showers this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Due to the suppression from the ridge, it will help keep the showers and thunderstorms scattered at most. Although the ridge will help suppress things, the showers and storms that do form look to have quality instability to work with over 2500 j/kg of MLCAPE to work with. So, the some of the showers could be strong, but we do not have enough mid-level dry air or cool air aloft for a substantial wind or hail threat. Needless to say, tomorrow and Sunday will be a very typical summer day with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. PoPs were adjusted slightly to account for where the short-range models are depicting shower development, but it was not much. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Most of the short-range guidance depicts an MCS coming out of SE Texas and heading east through south Louisiana Sunday night. The guidance suggests that the complex will die before entering the area as diurnally-driven stable air sets up across the area. So, at most, there might be light stratiform rain leftover from the MCS Sunday night. Starting Monday, shortwave ridging sets back up over the area. Due to the ridging and subsequent onshore flow, we will be heating back up to start the week. The trough ejections that look to take place way north of us across the Midwest. This will keep us in quasi-zonal flow to even slight ridging throughout the week next week. The continued onshore flow and ridging will allow us to heat up to above-normal temperatures throughout the week. It looks like Thursday could be the first day where it feels like 100 degrees due to the moisture and warm air advection, so make sure it does not sneak up on you. The end of the week is a little more uncertain when looking at the ensemble clustering. Some of the guidance suggests that we finally get a trough to dig far enough south to send a cold front by Friday and bring some rain along with it. Although that seems most probable, we are getting to that time of year where cold fronts start to not make it all the way down here and the trough ejects too far north, so although that seems the most probable now, do not be surprised if the front does not end up making it all the way down here and we stay hot and mostly dry into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Most terminals are VFR at issuance time, but KGPT and KASD have developed BKN018 ceilings over the last hour. There is certainly some low level moisture around after the rainfall Friday afternoon, but the question will be whether we end up with fog or stratus again toward sunrise, as has been the question the last few nights. Multiple MCS to our west from the northern Plains to the Rio Grande River, with cirrus spreading this way, but thinning as they approach. Dew points are about 5-8 degrees lower than they were 24 hours ago, but so are temperatures. For now, the expectation is that stratus near FL010 will be the main occurrence at most terminals, with the exceptions being KMCB and KHUM where TEMPO LIFR conditions will be carried around sunrise. Expect MVFR ceilings at most or all terminals at mid morning Saturday as cumulus field develops, but could see improvement to VFR at midday. Threat of SHRA/TSRA appears to be lower on Saturday, but some models carrying a weak shortwave that could trigger scattered cells, with the "most" favored terminal KMCB. That`s the only one we`ll carry a mention for now. Anything that does develop should dissipate toward sunset, with the same cycle anticipated overnight tomorrow night. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Onshore flow is expected to continue for the next week or so as we stay on the western side of the surface high over the Atlantic. A potential frontal passage could happen on Friday, but given the tome of year and how far out it is, it is uncertain whether it makes it to the area, much less to the waters. If it does not make it far enough south, expect light onshore flow to continue for the entire forecast period, with Wednesday having the strongest winds as the pressure gradient tightens in response to low pressure development across the central Plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 86 65 84 66 / 40 20 40 20 BTR 89 69 87 70 / 30 10 40 10 ASD 87 68 87 69 / 20 10 10 10 MSY 86 72 87 72 / 20 10 10 10 GPT 85 70 84 71 / 10 10 10 10 PQL 88 67 88 69 / 10 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM....JZ AVIATION...RW MARINE...JZ