National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KLIX 182329
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
629 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A fairly broad upper level trough pushing south out of Canada will
continue to expand across the High Plains to upper Mississippi River
Valley the rest of this afternoon and evening. A cold front
associated with this trough is moving southeast through OK, TX, and
AR. Southerly flow across the region has been slowly increasing
moisture levels throughout the column with highest PW`s pooling
ahead of the boundary in east Texas and northern/central LA. Closer
to the CWA, PW`s are around 1.5". A weak shortwave sliding across
the Lower Mississippi Valley combined with modest low and upper
level moisture is just enough to promote scattered light
showers/sprinkles. CAMs seem to pick up on this much better than the
global models. Therefore, have added them to the afternoon forecast.
Not much in the way of QPF expected, so minimal impacts expected.
Showers should dissipated this evening and overnight with loss of
daytime heating. Clouds will hang around tonight and areas of mostly
light fog will be possible.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The above mentioned upper trough will continue east across the Great
Lakes Friday and Saturday. The upper low aloft will still be fairly
flat/zonal with possibly weak ridging in place. That`ll still
promote slightly more moderating temps. Could see an isolated
location or 2 reach 90 degrees on Friday. That`ll be within the
realm of record highs for the local area.

As we go through the weekend, models show a shortwave on the
backside of the northern trough moving through the region. This is
what`ll be needed to drive a cold front through the CWA on Sunday.
Ample moisture in place with lift from the front will be a good
setup for increasing showers and thunderstorms. Latest forecast
depicts this with rain chances increasing to near 80% and rainfall
totals around an inch. This cold front won`t be particularly strong,
so only looking at a day of below normal temps with moderating
conditions quickly returning as well as above normal temps Tuesday
onward.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Mixture of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected for terminals
though the early morning hours. There are a few light showers in
the area but due to how fleeting and weak they are, opted out of
VCSH. Some light fog is possible as well as lowering ceilings
especially in the 08-14z timeframe. Once the sun rises, vis and
ceilings will improve to VFR. -BL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A surface high pressure centered east of the local coastal waters
will remain generally in that position through the rest of this week
and starting this weekend. That`ll keep onshore flow in place, but
weaker pressure gradient should limit wind speeds and sea/wave
heights. Current global model runs indicate that a cold front will
move through the coast waters Sunday afternoon. Cold air advection
won`t be particularly strong with this boundary and thus likely only
looking at about 12 to 18 hours of Exercise Caution conditions.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  85  65  80 /   0  10   0  40
BTR  69  89  69  86 /   0   0   0  20
ASD  68  87  67  85 /   0   0   0  20
MSY  70  87  69  84 /   0  10   0  10
GPT  68  83  67  82 /   0  10   0  20
PQL  66  86  65  84 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...ME