599
FXUS66 KLOX 091607
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
907 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...09/900 AM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
near normal temperatures and no rain. Increasing night and morning
low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow
increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are
expected through Sunday, then cooling possible Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/906 AM.

***UPDATE***

Stratus coverage was less than expected last night and this
morning, especially north of Pt Conception. However, north/south
gradients are weakening today and low clouds are starting to
round the point and move north, so expecting better coverage
tonight with possibly some dense fog. Otherwise, today will feel a
lot like yesterday with stratus eventually clearing and temps in
the high 60s to mid 70s, except around 80 in the warmest valleys
and interior areas.

***From Previous Discussion***

The eddy will continue to spin tonight and its likely that the
low clouds will arrive sooner. Rising hgts will smoosh the marine
layer and there will be more fog. Stronger onshore flow and a
stronger inversion will add a few more hours to the clearing time
with some beaches remaining cloudy into the afternoon. Look for 2
to 4 degrees of cooling across the coasts and vlys, but sunny
skies will bring an additional 3 to 5 degrees of warming to the
interior. While the csts/vlys will be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal
the mtns and interior will be 2 to 4 degrees above normal.

The eddy is much weaker Fri night and Sat morning. The onshore
flow will be a little weaker as well. The low clouds will affect
most of the coasts south of Pt Conception but the vlys will remain
clear. The low clouds will burn off quicker as well. At the upper
levels the retrograding low will finally begin to push to the east
and hgts will rise. Max temps will respond and warm 2 to 4 degrees
across the entire area.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/1216 AM.

Weak ridging will persist on Sunday. Followed by a weak and dry
cut off low moving in over the area Mon through Wed. Onshore flow
increases through the period and by mid weak may be near +9 to the
east and +6 to the N.

Look for the marine layer to increase each day with later and
later burn offs as the onshore flow increases. Gusty afternoon
winds from the west will also develop esp on Tue and Wed with the
strongest gusts across the LA mtns and the Antelope Vly.

Look for warmer temps on Sunday with 70s across the coasts and 80s
in the vlys. Most areas will cool all three days Mon to Wed with
the csts/vlys cooling the most due to the increased marine layer
and onshore flow. The AV may be the exception as the west winds
will create some downslope warming. From a climate point of view
the csts/vlys will fall to several degrees blo normal while the
inland areas will remain noticeably above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1040Z.

At 1000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 3500 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

For 12Z TAF package, high confidence in KSBP, KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.
However, only moderate confidence for all other sites. Timing of
CIG dissipation this morning could be up to 2 hours later than
current forecasts. For tonight, timing of return of CIG/VSBY
restrictions could be +/- 2 hours from current forecasts with
equal chances of MVFR or IFR conditions.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of MVFR CIG
dissipation this morning could be as late as 19Z. For tonight,
timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 2 hours of
current 06Z forecast with equal chances of MVFR or IFR conditions.
No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of MVFR CIG
dissipation this morning could be as late as 17Z. For tonight,
timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 2 hours of
current 08Z forecast.

&&

.MARINE...09/759 AM.

Southeast winds will be dominant this morning. Localized gusts to
around 20 kt are possible between the islands and through the
passages. The rather large west to northwest swell from the past
few days is slower to subside than expected, but still on track to
lower through the day and through Friday.

There is a 60 percent chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds
for the offshore waters Saturday night through Sunday, and a 30
percent chance for the nearshore waters of the Central Coast.
Otherwise high confidence in winds staying under SCA through the
weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox