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000
FXUS64 KLUB 171118
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
618 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A shortwave over northern Mexico will approach the forecast area
today. However, the only impact from this wave is the increased high
level cloud cover this morning which will slide east through the
day. At the surface, a weak surface low will slowly shift north from
the Rolling Plains into the eastern Texas Panhandle this afternoon.
This will keep winds relatively light through the morning hours but
as lee surface troughing strengthens southwesterly winds will
increase to around 15 mph by this afternoon. These downsloping winds
 will help to boost high temperatures into the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Temperatures will remain mild overnight only dropping into the 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Models continue to agree with bringing a strong cold front into the
region late week. The current timing for the FROPA is early tomorrow
afternoon which will make forecasting Thursday`s highs rather
difficult. There will likely be a fairly wide gradient with high
temps possibly ranging from the upper 60s/around 70 to mid/upper
80s. Friday will be much cooler, 60s area wide, as surface winds
become more easterly and stratus develops across the region. An
upper shortwave trough is progged to move into California from the
Pacific by late Friday and continue eastward with the axis of the
trough passing over the Four Corners mid-day Saturday. This trough
will supply the added lift needed to aid isentropic lift with
widespread shower development. Some weak mid level instability will
be possible as the trough moves overhead Saturday evening and could
allow for a few embedded thunderstorms. The ECMWF continues to be
the most bullish with QPF with and average of 1 inch of rainfall
through early Sunday. The GFS keeps the heaviest precip to our south
and east with and average of 0.5 inch for the FA through Sunday
morning. The combination of cooler airmass, cloud cover, and rain
will also keep temps on the chilly side Saturday with temps barely
reaching into the 50s across most areas with some areas only seeing
highs in the upper 40s. Upper ridging will push back into the region
by early next week and will allow temps to quickly rebound back into
the upper 70s/low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period. Light and
variable winds early this morning will increase this afternoon
with sustained winds around 15 kts out of the southwest. After
sunset winds will become light and variable once again. A period
of LLWS is expected tonight as winds around 700 ft AGL increases
to around 40 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Our stretch of warm and dry weather will continue today as
temperatures warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s. With the dry
airmass still in place this will lead to relative humidity values
dropping into the upper single digits to lower teens. Fortunately,
southwest winds will remain relatively light only increasing to
around 15 mph this afternoon for a few hours. This will keep RFTI
values capped at 4 with the highest values across the far southwest
Texas Panhandle into portions of the South Plains. Therefore a Fire
Danger Statement has been issued for this area from noon until 7 pm
today. Winds will diminish around sunset however relative humidity
values will be slow to recover through the night.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...58