Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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542 FXUS64 KLZK 010520 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1220 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a shortwave trough over the southeastern CONtinental United States (CONUS), moving east while weak shortwave ridging was located over Arkansas. Visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies over the state this afternoon while surface observations showed temperatures in the lower 80s across Arkansas. Humidity remained fairly high with temperatures in the 80s with most relative humidity values still checking in at the 60 percent range despite approaching the peak heating hours of the day. For tomorrow (Wednesday), a shortwave trough that is currently in place over Baja California will move east towards Arkansas, however it is not expected to spread large scale forcing for ascent over the area until Thursday morning. As the trough approaches, it will bring some reinforcing weak ridging back over the state, leading to another mostly clear and dry day for Arkansas. There is a weak boundary in play tomorrow across the northwestern portion of the state, so an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over the northwestern third of the area. However, the subsidence from the weak ridging aloft and weak high pressure at the surface is expected to win out making for a warmer, but generally less humid day tomorrow. On Thursday, as the upper level trough arrives, southerly winds and the lack of large scale forcing for subsidence will allow deeper low-level moisture to take place over the state. With forcing for ascent associated with the trough moving west to east over the area beginning tomorrow morning, expect initially scattered showers and thunderstorms to grow more numerous and spread east, bringing likely rain chances over most areas by Thursday afternoon. Forecast instability over the area is very low at this time, so severe weather is not impossible, but is considered very unlikely for Thursday and Thursday night. This upcoming weekend, Thursday`s shortwave trough offers a prelude to a gentle but meaningful pattern shift that will set up over the CONUS this weekend into early next week. The flow aloft becomes established as southwesterly with a persistent ridge over the Atlantic Coast. This flow regime is expected to remain in place over Arkansas from Friday through mid week next week, allowing several upper level disturbances to move over the state while lee-side cyclogenesis anchors surface troughing over the high plains. This will generally keep low-level southerly flow leading from the Gulf of Mexico across Arkansas, keeping plentiful moisture in place through this period. The upper level disturbances will serve as approximate daily bursts of lift that result in at least scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each day Friday through Tuesday. This period will not be a complete rainout, and some days will have more widespread showers and storms than others. Overall severe weather changes don`t look to be overly high as there`s not one overarching system that comes through providing a significant threat for any given day. If you think about the energy contained within one significant severe weather outbreak, imagine taking all of that energy but dispersing it into several smaller packets over several day`s worth of time. It`s not that we don`t have enough energy in this regime to support the occurrence of severe weather, rather the energy is expected to be dispersed enough to support an unsettled weather pattern with some showers and storms each day, but really no day where everyone sees rain. Hit and miss showers and storms with a marginal threat for severe storms each day looks to be the most likely outcome. Any severe storms are expected to be isolated in nature with the occasional large hail or damaging wind event possibly highlighting the scope of severe storms on any given day. We will have to watch the forecast daily and see if the severe weather chances increase one day more than the others, but this far out, no individual day stands out apart from the rest. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the 80s and lows generally in the 60s each day. Cavanaugh && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Broad cirrus shield was beginning to move into the Wrn portions of the FA from ongoing precip in N/Ern OK. Expect VFR condns to prevail thru the night w/ incrsg high cloud cover at most areas. Some patchy fog and reduced VISBY`s may be seen at select Cntrl terminals, but confidence remains low. Winds should settle out overnight, w/ Srly flow resuming on Wed and VFR condns prevailing thru the end of the PD. /72/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 86 62 82 63 / 10 0 50 70 Camden AR 89 64 76 64 / 0 10 70 70 Harrison AR 80 62 77 59 / 30 10 70 70 Hot Springs AR 87 64 74 63 / 10 10 80 80 Little Rock AR 88 63 81 65 / 0 10 70 80 Monticello AR 88 65 80 65 / 0 0 50 70 Mount Ida AR 86 65 74 62 / 10 10 90 80 Mountain Home AR 83 62 81 60 / 20 0 60 70 Newport AR 88 63 84 65 / 0 0 40 70 Pine Bluff AR 88 63 80 65 / 0 0 60 80 Russellville AR 86 64 77 62 / 10 10 70 70 Searcy AR 87 61 82 63 / 0 0 60 70 Stuttgart AR 88 64 82 65 / 0 0 60 80 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...72