Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 252324
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The next 36-48 hours will be characterized by a very large and
potent trough centered along the Rocky Mountains that is slowly
moving east. This keeps progressive westerly flow over the region
with a few weak disturbances anticipated to round the base of this
trough. Widespread advisory level winds with high winds in the
mountains continue this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures
are below normal with many locations only reaching the upper 50s
to 60s this afternoon. A couple isolated showers may develop from
the Permian Basin to Trans Pecos during the afternoon but with a
dry sub-cloud layer not much is expected to actually reach the
ground. Winds finally begin to weaken tonight across the lower
elevations and the Wind Advisory will likely be allowed to expire.
The High Wind Warning continues for the mountains through most of
the night as winds are anticipated to remain strong. Being post-
frontal, temperatures may be a bit chilly tonight with 30s to low
40s for most, though it could be worse as elevated winds and high
clouds should keep it from getting overly cold.

Tomorrow is going to feel fairly similar to today. Winds are going
to be breezy across the region, though below advisory levels this
time around. Afternoon temperatures may be a touch warmer with
more 60s and fewer 50s across the area. With the axis of the
trough across northern portions of the area, an isolated shower or
two can`t be ruled out across the northern Permian Basin. Once
again, a dry sub-cloud layer should keep most if not all
precipitation from reaching the ground. Tomorrow night sees wind
speeds continuing their gradual decrease over the southern Great
PLains. Temperatures tomorrow night are very similar to tonight,
though with less 30s and more 40s anticipated. Overall, the windy
and below normal temperatures hold under the influence of the
trough.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

While the large upper trough responsible for the unsettled, windy
conditions will be translating eastward on Wednesday, a short wave
rounding the western periphery of the trough will skirt over the
region through Wednesday afternoon. This short wave will produce
another round of breezy conditions across the area, and
particularly across the higher terrain and adjacent plains to the
west. Fortunately, winds will be lighter than those we`ve seen,
even across the mountains, and are thus expected to remain below
even advisory criteria. The gradient slackens heading into
Wednesday evening, as flow aloft quickly transitions to
northwesterly between the departing trough and a building high-
amplitude ridge to the west of the area. This ridge will be the
dominant feature through the remainder of the extended, first
building over the area on Thursday, before flattening out in
response to a series of troughs translating across the northern
tier of the CONUS through the weekend.

Subsidence associated with the ridge as well as transitioning
quasi-zonal flow will put the kibosh on precipitation chances
through the weekend, which is unfortunate for our drought, but
good news for those planning outdoor activities for the Easter
holiday weekend. As far as temperatures are concerned, a warming
trend will be underway by Wednesday as the aforementioned trough
departs, with highs progged to top out in the middle 60s to middle
70s for most. Thereafter, warm and dry will be the rule as
temperatures warm a bit each day, with widespread highs in the 80s
and lower 90s expected for the weekend. Midland may have a shot
at seeing the first 90 degree day of the year on Sunday, so stay
tuned.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals through
27/00Z. We`re seeing some high-based showers affecting all
terminals at present except KCNM, and given the inverted-V profile
of the atmosphere, we`re mixing some higher momentum air to the
surface, resulting in localized wind shear with gusts near 45
knots. These conditions will prevail until 02Z. Thereafter, west
to northwest winds will decrease somewhat but will pick up again
in the 16-17Z time range at all terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions will persist this afternoon,
mainly along and west of the Pecos River, and particularly south
of I-10 southward into the Big Bend where winds are stronger this
afternoon and RFTIs approach 5-6 the closer you get to the Rio
Grande. A cold front moving into northern portions of the area is
producing a northwesterly wind shift, with winds gusting to around
30 to 40 mph, while elsewhere, west to southwest winds continue,
gusting to 35 to 50 mph this afternoon. This wind shift is not
anticipated to reach the Davis Mountains and Big Bend prior to the
end of peak heating, where winds will generally remain westerly
with some variability due to terrain. The main concern this
afternoon are high-based showers that are developing and will
produce erratic, gusty winds if any fires were to develop. IA
potential remains high this afternoon, but ERCs hovering around
the 50th percentile keeps the potential for significant fires low.
Improvement is expected this evening as mixing decreases and
temperatures cool, with mainly good recovery expected across the
area.

Breezy conditions continue Tuesday and Wednesday, lending to
continued localized elevated conditions, though wind speeds will
be lighter. A significant warming and drying trend will carry
through the upcoming weekend, with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees
above normal Saturday and Sunday, with another round of near
critical or critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday,
especially west.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  35  66  38 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 63  42  65  41 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                   71  45  72  47 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            66  44  68  43 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           53  37  54  37 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    60  32  62  35 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                    56  32  58  32 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     65  37  65  40 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                   64  39  66  41 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     66  42  68  41 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Tuesday for Davis
     Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Glasscock-Loving-
     Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...70


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