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000
FXUS64 KMAF 130805
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
305 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Per latest water vapor imagery and RUC analysis, a midlevel ridge is
currently translating eastward over the region as a deepening trough
takes shape off of the northwestern California Coast. This ridge and
its accompanying increasing thicknesses will allow temperatures to
soar above normal this afternoon, aided in part by a developing lee
surface trough to the north that will facilitate a shift to
southwesterly surface flow across western portions of the region
this afternoon. Downslope warming will yield highs today in the
middle to upper 80s for most, lower 90s across portions of the Rio
Grande and Pecos Valleys as well as the eastern Permian Basin, and
triple digits returning through the Rio Grande Valley in the Big
Bend. It will be breezy this afternoon, though not quite as windy as
yesterday, with the breeziest conditions expected across Southeast
New Mexico. These breezy, warm, and dry conditions will yield
another round of elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon,
and more can be found below in the Fire Weather Discussion.

Tonight, the low-level jet ramps up once again across the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, accompanied by gusty southerly to
southeasterly winds as well as a continued influx of Gulf moisture
to the region. This will keep lows on the mild side, in the 50s and
lower 60s areawide. Heading into Sunday, flow aloft will have
transitioned to southwesterly as the ridge departs to the east and
the aforementioned trough makes its way across California and into
the Great Basin. Despite the ridge axis moving east, temperatures
only continue to climb Sunday, with west-southwesterly downslope
flow developing by afternoon, sending highs into the middle to upper
80s west and lower 90s east, with more widespread 100s in the Big
Bend. With a forecast high of 91F on Sunday, it looks like Midland
may finally surpass the 90 degree threshold for the first time this
year... One can only postpone the inevitable for so long. If you`re
hoping for rain, you`re out of luck, as the short-term remains dry.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

After a very hot day Sunday, an approaching upper level low moves
into the Four Corners early Monday morning with an uptick in winds
across the region ahead of this system. Southerly surface winds
develop for the eastern CWA in response to lee troughing to the
north while dry southwesterly flow develops across the west, with a
sharpening dryline setting up somewhere over the Permian Basin
Monday afternoon. As the low moves eastward Monday, a mid-level jet
max ~80kts sets up over New Mexico and efficient mixing in the
afternoon will allow high winds to develop across the Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains, which may spill over into New Mexico and
surrounding areas. These strong winds, combining with critically low
humidity Monday afternoon, means a Red Flag Warning will likely be
needed, especially given the recent drying out of vegetation across
the region. As the western CWA deals with fire concerns, the eastern
CWA will have it`s own trouble with a severe weather threat,
especially for those east of the dryline thanks to extensive
instability. Model soundings show CAPE values ~2000 J/kg for the far
eastern counties late Monday afternoon with trends pushing the
dryline ever so slightly westward with each run. This is mainly due
to the later initiation of storms, as models seem to hold off on
true onset of storms until the arrival of the Pacific front
associated with the aforementioned low, colliding with the dryline
to produce a late-night severe weather threat. Soundings show steep
mid-level lapse rates for Monday evening, indicating more of a large
hail and possible wind threat rather than tornadoes, as moisture
will be lacking for much of the event. No matter where you live,
Monday will be quite the day with fire concerns to the west and
south and severe storms to the east.

Things quiet down a bit after Monday as flow returns more zonal with
the departure of the low, and highs for much of the week hold
slightly above normal in the 80s. Unfortunately, winds look to
remain elevated each afternoon and combine with critically low
humidity to create at least elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions for much of the week. This continues until a cold front
arrives late Thursday/early Friday, which may bring precipitation
chances heading into the weekend.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. A nocturnal low-
level jet will keep southeasterly winds elevated tonight at the
West Texas terminals, with winds becoming lighter and shifting to
the south and southwest after daybreak. Winds will become elevated
and intermittently gusty during the afternoon, with gusts to
20-25kt possible. After sunset, gusts will diminish for all but
MAF and FST, where the return of the low-level jet will produce
another round of gusty southerly and southeasterly winds through
the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Ongoing elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions today
through Sunday as above normal temperatures return and critical
humidity each afternoon meets elevated 20ft winds. The main concern
remains the ERCs and fuel moisture, with ERCs in the 75th+
percentile, and fuels dry to critically dry for much of the region.
A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon for
Southeast New Mexico where the strongest 20ft winds will be today,
co-located with humidity as low as 6%. Overnight recovery will be
poor to fair across the west before minimum humidity once again
falls to single digits Sunday afternoon. Very strong 20ft winds
develop on Monday ahead of an approaching upper low, and humidity
falls to around 4-5% Monday afternoon across the west. While a
sharpening dryline across the east looks to aid storm development
Monday afternoon and evening, strong winds and critical humidity
across the west will create critical fire weather conditions and a
Red Flag Warning will likely be needed. Poor overnight recovery
is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning for most of the
region, with some spots not seeing humidity get above 20%.

Even as 20ft winds decrease Tuesday and Wednesday with the departure
of the low, critically low humidity will continue both afternoons
and the aforementioned ERCs and low fuel moisture express the need
for additional fire products these days. There may finally be a
break nearing the end of the week as a cold front looks to push
through, bringing a return of moisture and cooler temperatures
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               90  58  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 88  56  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   87  59  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            92  61  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           79  57  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    86  53  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    85  50  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     89  58  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   89  60  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     91  57  92  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...84