Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
785 FXUS64 KMAF 181734 AAB AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 A departing trough and clearing skies this afternoon gives way to a thermal ridge axis and warm downsloping winds as 850mb temps reach 26-27C. As the heat cranks up over West Texas and SE New Mexico, a strong cold front will be pushing down into the Texas Panhandle while a broad upper trough moves across Canada. This front looks to be knocking on our doorstep right around the end of peak heating, and compressional warming ahead of the front may actually push temperatures even higher. Have gone ahead and bumped up temperatures to the mid to upper 90s for much of the region, while areas along the Rio Grande look to be in the triple digits. The front will continue to press southward tonight and throughout Friday, likely setting up somewhere along the Hwy 90 corridor by Friday afternoon as CAA continues, and highs across the Permian Basin may not get above the 60s. Along and south of I-10, temperatures in the 70s look more reasonable, and the front setting up along the higher terrain may act as a feature for afternoon thunderstorms on Friday. A few hi- res models develop storms off the Davis Mountains, as is typical this time of year, which then move eastward into the lower Trans Pecos Friday evening. The real determining factor here will be whether or not temperatures will warm enough to break the cap for storms to develop, so have maintained minimal POPs for Friday afternoon/evening. Regardless of storm chances tomorrow, temperatures will be unseasonably cool, and may be our last sliver of early spring before summer takes hold. -Zuber && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Saturday night, precipitation chances continue to increase in the wake of the strong cold front as southwesterly flow aloft begins in earnest ahead of an approaching shortwave over the Desert Southwest. Numerous shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly flow will aid in ascent over the frontal boundary, with precipitation chances ramping up from south to north overnight, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. Despite the continued northeasterly surface flow and associated cold advection, temperatures Saturday night won`t be too different from Friday night, dipping into the upper 40s north, with 50s to the south, and 60s across the Lower Trans Pecos and across the Stockton Plateau to the Rio Grande. While cloud cover will keep lows from dropping too much, it will also be the significant limiting factor on warming during the day Saturday. A secondary reinforcing push of cooler air will progress through the area Saturday, while the aforementioned shortwave translates across the region Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. While temperatures in the 50s and 60s along and north of I-10 will limit much of the surface-based instability, this shortwave and its associated ascent will yield elevated instability, keeping thunderstorms with the potential for moderate to locally heavy rain in the forecast on Saturday. NBM probabilistic guidance indicates a medium to high (40-90%) probability for >0.10" of rainfall on Saturday for locations along and east of the Pecos River, and a medium probability (40-60%) for >0.25" of precipitation across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos during the same time frame. This will stand to be the best chance for widespread rainfall much of the area has seen in some time, though amounts remain uncertain. Thunderstorms could produce local enhancements to rainfall, especially where cell training occurs, but fortunately, severe weather is not anticipated given the weak and elevated nature of available instability. One thing`s for sure, any moisture would be welcome, especially after the hot and dry week we had. As the shortwave moves to the east on Saturday night, subsidence will begin to develop in its wake, marking the beginning of a drying trend. This will be evidenced by low temperatures early Saturday morning, expected to drop into the 40s for most of the area, with 50s across far southern zones, and even some upper 30s possible for portions of Southeast New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Rain chances shift south and east on Sunday as northwesterly flow aloft develops, with temperatures starting to rebound through the 60s for much of the region. This warming and drying trend continues early next week as flow aloft transitions to quasi-zonal, with highs Monday in the 70s and 80s, and right back into the 80s and lower 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Beyond this weekend, precipitation chances in the long term are paltry, though some diurnally driven storms may be possible over the higher terrain of Southwest Texas Monday afternoon, with potential for dryline activity following for midweek. So, stay tuned. JP && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 A backdoor cold front will bring a nly to ely wind shift during the TAF period with the potential for gusts btwn 20 to 25 kts during the aftn. Low clouds will increase behind the front, bringing MVFR and lcl IFR cigs to most terminals, with improvement expected aft 19/17Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 95 52 67 51 / 0 0 10 70 Carlsbad 95 53 74 55 / 0 0 0 30 Dryden 97 65 83 64 / 0 10 30 60 Fort Stockton 97 60 78 61 / 0 0 30 50 Guadalupe Pass 85 53 71 55 / 0 0 0 20 Hobbs 90 49 67 49 / 0 0 10 50 Marfa 89 49 82 51 / 0 0 30 40 Midland Intl Airport 95 54 68 53 / 0 0 10 70 Odessa 95 55 69 55 / 0 0 20 70 Wink 97 57 74 57 / 0 0 10 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....84 AVIATION...99