395
FXUS64 KMAF 141721
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A warm and mostly quiet day is expected today across West Texas
and southeast New Mexico. Highs reach into the low to mid 90s
areawide with low 100s in the Big Bend. A dryline sharpens along a
north- south line from Colorado City down to Big Lake and further
south to Dryden. A few short range ensemble members show one or
two isolated showers or storms develop late this afternoon, but
either quickly dissipate or move east out of the area. The same
dryline retreats much further to the west late Tuesday night and
into Wednesday and sets up along the high terrain. Modest shear
along with some instability(~1500J/kg) will allow for a few storms
to fire along the dryline. A couple storms may become severe with
hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Activity that
develops will gradually move to the east during the afternoon and
into the evening. Highs on Wednesday once again reach above normal
into the low to mid 90s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper trough over New Mexico will continue to bring a chance
for showers and thunderstorms to southeastern New Mexico and the
Permian Basin on Thursday. This will be the last chance rainfall
for the remainder of the forecast as the upper pattern transitions
to zonal or ridging. Will have to keep a close eye on the Sunday-
Tuesday time frame where guidance is showing well above normal
temperatures developing. NBM highs are in the upper 90s with some
locations seeing their first 100 degree temps, Midland/Odessa
included. The hot temperatures will mainly depend on the strength
and location of the upper jet currently progged to be over
northern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Westerly downsloping
winds would bring the hot temps to our CWA, a slightly more
northerly shift of the jet would allow cooler and more moist Gulf
air to remain in the Basin, keeping temps a little lower.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Southerly to
southeasterly winds will also continue, becoming elevated and
intermittently gusty this afternoon and tonight, especially at
INK, MAF, and FST as the nocturnal low-level jet develops. CNM and
PEQ are likely to see a westerly to northwesterly wind shift late
in the period, though speeds there will remain under 12kt. Any
storms that develop this afternoon are expected to be to the east
of area terminals, with no local impacts anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  91  64  89 /  10  20  40  40
Carlsbad                 60  95  61  86 /   0  10  10  30
Dryden                   69  95  69  97 /   0  20  30  10
Fort Stockton            68  96  65  92 /   0  30  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           62  84  59  78 /   0  10   0  20
Hobbs                    60  92  57  84 /   0  10  20  40
Marfa                    54  88  54  84 /   0  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     68  91  64  89 /   0  20  30  30
Odessa                   68  92  66  89 /   0  20  30  30
Wink                     67  96  64  90 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...84