Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 251822
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
122 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A windy morning across the Mid-South at this hour. Nearly every
airport has reported a 35 mph gust already, with a peak gust of
46 mph recorded at Jonesboro, AR Airport around 10AM. Gusty winds
will continue throughout the entire day as the pressure gradient
strengthens from 7mb to nearly 10mb by late afternoon and early
evening. Latest HREF guidance shows the potential for widespread
gusts in excess of 50 mph across much of west Tennessee, eastern
Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel. A wind advisory remains in
effect through this evening for the entire Mid-South for winds up
to 55mph, with a High Wind Warning valid from 19-03Z for the MO
Bootheel and adjacent counties for 60+ mph.

Hi-res models are rather consistent in convection shoring up into
a quasi-linear mode over the next hour or so in western Arkansas
and then pushing east into the Mid-South around 4PM. The primary
concern remains damaging winds along the line as higher momentum
is mixed down from 925mb. A few gusts to 65 mph seem probable at
this point and there is some concern for embedded mesovortices
within the line as it moves through north central Mississippi this
evening. Large looping hodographs continue to look very
impressive, yielding impressive 0-3km SRH values in excess of 500
m2/s2. Instability continues to be the limiting factor, with
probabilistic guidance bringing maybe up to 100 J/kg to our
extreme southwestern counties in north Mississippi. Will continue
to message the damaging wind threat and brief spin-ups tornado
risk. The line will likely exit the Mid-South around midnight and
winds will subside substantially. Dry conditions will persist
through the latter part of the week.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Expect a change in weather conditions today as strong winds
impact the Mid-South. A Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning will
be in place today. Sustained winds of 30-40mph with gusts in
excess of 55 mph are anticipated. A low severe weather threat may
materialize this evening as a line of showers and storms impacts
the region. However, confidence for this remains low. By
Wednesday, quieter weather returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Strong winds will impact the Mid-South today as an upper level low
treks northeast across Kansas and Missouri. By midday, expect the
pressure gradient to tighten significantly with most guidance
depicting a 10 mb spread across the area. Sustained winds of 30
mph and greater are anticipated with gusts up to 55 mph. As such,
a Wind Advisory will go into effect at 7AM for the entire Mid-
South. The greatest potential for High Wind Warning criteria will
occur in the evening hours as a line of showers and thunderstorms
pushes into the region, further tightening the pressure gradient.
WSUP Viewer probabilities places a 60-80% chance of wind gusts in
excess of 58 mph across portions of northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel, and extreme northwest Tennessee. These
probabilities are further corroborated by the NBM, as the latest
run places maximum wind gusts of 60+ mph in these areas. As such,
a High Wind Warning will go into effect at 2PM for Dunklin,
Pemiscot, Lake, and Mississippi (AR) Counties.

In addition to wind concerns, the Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted portions of the Mid-South in a Marginal and Slight
Risk for severe weather. Overall, confidence for severe storm
development remains low as the majority of guidance keeps
favorable SBCAPE values south of the region. However, the
kinematics associated with this system are quite impressive with
bulk shear values around 75 kts and 0-3km SRH in excess of 900
m2/s2. Even if enough instability filters into the region, these
strong kinematics may essentially "shear apart" any storm that
tries to develop. Therefore, the overall threat remains low with
damaging winds the primary concern.

Most recent CAMs depict a vertical line of showers and storms
moving into the area by Monday evening. Ahead of this line, expect
Precipitable Water values to increase above the 99th percentile
with dewpoints in the 60s over the Mississippi Delta. Overall, the
heavy rainfall threat continues to decrease with only 1-2 inches
of rain anticipated through midday Tuesday.

Much quieter conditions return by Wednesday as a cold front
impacts the Mid-South. For the end of the week, upper level
ridging will dominate and result in a warming trend. Expect
afternoon highs in the mid 70s by Saturday.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Very windy conditions are expected at all sites throughout the
day as a strong cold front tightens the pressure gradient across
the airspace. Expect sustained winds from the south 25-30 kt with
gusts up to 45 kt at all four terminals. The window with the
highest potential for impactful surface winds is about 20Z-02Z
tonight. An AWW is in effect for these elevated winds at MEM for
this time frame.

As the front approaches, a line of showers and thunderstorms will
also materialize this afternoon. Timing of TSRA (potentially even
heavy TSRA with 1-2 mi visibility and 45+KT wind gusts) looks to
start during the late afternoon hours at JBR, working its way
toward the east through the evening. It`s worth noting that
earlier CAMs from last night have been fairly consistent in the
timing of these lines at each terminal, but the 12Z and 15Z CAMs
have pushed the timing back 1-2 hours later. This type of linear
event is notorious for being more aligned with the earlier
initializations and thus we opted to err on the early side with
each FROPA window with TSRA. There is about a 1-2 hour uncertainty
window in the arrival time.

LLWS will also pose an aviation concern at all sites as a strong
925 mb jet comes racing up the MS Delta. Expect 45-60 kts of
southerly LLWS around FL020 through sunset tonight. Ceilings are
most likely going to hover between MVFR and VFR throughout the day
as the front approaches. During actual FROPA, most areas should
drop to MVFR and potentially see some intermittent IFR ceilings.
Expect clouds and precip to lift and subside, respectively,
before sunrise Tuesday.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026-027-035-
     036-048-049-058.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ028.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ARZ028.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ113-115.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ113-115.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ002>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for TNZ001.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     TNZ001.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CAD


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