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000
FXUS64 KMEG 112019
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
319 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A welcomed pattern change will occur on Friday with dry and warm
conditions persisting through the weekend. Rain chances return on
Tuesday as the next storm system approaches the Mid-South. Wet
conditions will likely persist through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Persistent upper level ridging will overspread the Mid-South on
Friday, resulting in dry conditions through the weekend. In
addition, a warming trend will be evident as temperatures increase
to around 80 degrees by Sunday afternoon.

On Monday, guidance continues to depict a strong upper level low
trekking across the Central Plains. Local impacts will likely not
be felt until Tuesday, when the aforementioned low pulls towards
the Great Lakes Region. Several days of return flow will allow for
a moist airmass to be in place by Tuesday afternoon. At this
time, rain chances look to increase with thunderstorm development
possible. The Storm Prediction Center has included a portion of
the Mid-South in a Slight Risk for severe storm development on
Tuesday. However, most recent guidance depicts large discrepancies
in location of the instability axis on Tuesday. For example, the
GEFS places about a 30% chance of >1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in place
across the Mid-South through sunset Tuesday. On the contrary,
ECMWF ensemble has a 0% probability of >500 J/kg at this time.
Overall, the probability for severe weather development appears
relatively low (30%) on Tuesday due to favorable shear and
instability not overlapping.

Rain chances will persist through Thursday as a reinforcing front
slowly moves across the Mid-South

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

MVFR conditions continue at most sites as light precip continues
to spin out to the northeast. Winds are still out of the northwest
with sustained speeds near 15 kts and gusts between 20-30 kts.
Looking at observations downstream, do expect these gusts to stay
up through 00Z. As precip moves out of the area, SKC conditions
will prevail through the remainder of this taf cycle with winds
shifting westerly. LLWS is expected this evening from roughly 00Z
through 9-10Z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...APB