Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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610 FXUS66 KMTR 071753 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1053 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024 Seasonal temperatures persist today with a warming trend to kick off Wednesday along with offshore winds in highest peaks of the North Bay and East Bay. Temperatures will peak Thursday and Friday with minor Heat Risk potentially continuing into Saturday across the interior. A gradual cooling trend will then follow by the end of the upcoming weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 842 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024 Satellite imagery shows patchy low stratus clearing across the SF Bay Area and Monterey Bay regions, expected to remain clear for the rest of the day. Forecast is generally on track, with no changes necessary at this time. DialH && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024 Very few low clouds this morning, mainly favoring the Monterey Bay region. Low clouds are likely to dissipate by early morning however. Afternoon temperatures will be closer to normal (within 1-5 degrees) yet still will be on the cooler side. Overall, expecting a mostly sunny day with the possibility of a few passing high clouds. Overnight conditions will cool into the mid-to-upper 40`s and lower 50`s near the San Francisco Bay. Do expect less in the way of cloud cover tonight as the airmass aloft continues to dry. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024 Warming trend kicks off on Wednesday with temperatures warming into the lower 80`s in the warmest interior spots. Meanwhile, mid 60`s to mid-to-upper 70`s are expected elsewhere across the region. Off shore winds also return to the region Wednesday morning and will continue through Thursday morning in the region`s peaks of the North Bay and East Bay. Gusts could reach or exceed 50 mph in the highest peaks. By Thursday and more so Friday, temperatures are expected to approach 90 degrees in the farthest inland spots. Slight cooling is expected near the coast on Saturday, yet the interior will remain similarly warm. Onshore flow returns to the region by late in the weekend with a general cooling trend. However, temperatures will still remain in the low-to-mid 80`s across the interior to upper 50`s to 60`s near the coast. From previous forecaster: "All in all should be a very nice second half of the week for everyone. That being said, folks should still exercise caution when enjoying time outdoors as this swing from below normal to above normal temperatures can catch people off guard. Plan to pack some extra water and sun protection if you`re planning to spend time outdoors. And the most important preparation if you`re going to the coast or relaxing poolside...SUNSCREEN!!!" && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR through the TAF period with breezy northwest winds continuing into the evening with light to moderate west to northwest winds overnight. Heading into tomorrow, gusty north to northwest winds return as upper level ridging and surface high pressure builds. Wind shear is expected at STS, APC, OAK, SFO, and LVK overnight. Moderate to high confidence that VFR will prevail at all stations overnight. HREF indicates some cloud cover in the Monterey Bay tomorrow morning but coverage should remain few to scattered. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy to gusty west to northwest winds continue into the evening with moderate westerly winds overnight. Gusty winds return by mid tomorrow morning with gusts up to 22 knots possible. A few ensemble members indicate that gusts between 25-27 knots are possible tomorrow so will keep an eye on and adjust gusts as needed. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Moderate northwest winds becoming gusty during the afternoon at SNS. Winds weaken to light to moderate overnight with winds becoming more variable at MRY. HREF guidance shows some cloud cover in Monterey Bay but confidence is low that a ceiling will develop as upper level conditions will be drier and the marine layer will be fairly shallow as high pressure builds. Any cloud coverage that does develop at MRY will be few to scattered. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1053 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024 Strong northerly winds continue through the midweek, with gale- force gusts expected over the outer waters and near the Big Sur coast. Towards the early Thursday morning, winds slowly ease to become fresh to moderate. However, as a result of strong winds in the early portion of the week, significant wave heights will build to heights of 15 to 16 feet over the outer waters by mid- week. Sea conditions will be hazardous Tuesday and Wednesday with gale warnings issued for portions of the coastal waters. By the late week into the weekend, winds ease to become gentle, significant wave heights gradually diminish to 5 to 7 feet, and dry weather continues as high pressure dominates. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea