Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 251136
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
436 AM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1247 AM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Quiet weather for today and Tuesday. An unsettled pattern returns
for mid week into the weekend with renewed rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1247 AM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A northwest flow pattern will prevail aloft as high pressure
advances towards the area from the northeast Pacific. Breezy winds
early this morning will gradually subside today as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Several patches of stratus/stratocumulus clouds
are evident on satellite imagery early this morning and expect some
erosion to scattered stratocumulus/cumulus to take place today once
daytime mixing ensues. High temperatures will warm by a few degrees
compared to yesterday with 60s for the inland valleys and upper 50s
along the immediate coast and bays. Lows tonight will be mostly in
the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1247 AM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Quiet weather and dry conditions will prevail on Tuesday with high
pressure in control.

Unsettled conditions return for Wednesday into Thursday. Rain
showers are initially expected along and ahead of a cold front on
Wednesday, with a continuation into Thursday in an unstable post-
frontal regime. Amounts appear beneficial and not overly impactful.

Deterministic models and their ensembles are in good agreement in a
stronger low pressure system moving through the region on Friday
into the weekend. There remains some disagreement on the exact
evolution of the pattern and resulting placement of the best rain
totals, but overall there remains at least medium confidence (~40%)
for seeing 1-2" in the coastal mountains and 0.25-0.75" elsewhere.
Stay tuned as we fine tune the forecast details in the days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 432 AM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

VFR through the TAF period at all terminals with the exception of
MRY, SJC, and SNS, which will see a return of MVFR ceilings tonight.
Winds will prevail out of the W/NW this afternoon with gusts of 15-
25 knots to be expected.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy westerly flow. VFR
through the TAF period. Winds will remain breezy to gusty out of the
west through the TAF period with gusts up to 25 knots to be expected.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly
flow at MRY and MVFR with breezy westerly flow at SNS. The ceiling
at MRY is expected to lower again below the VFR threshold, both
terminals will return to VFR by late morning. Breezy westerly
winds will prevail at both terminals by this afternoon. MVFR
ceilings return to both terminals tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 432 AM PDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds will prevail today and
tomorrow as high pressure briefly builds in. Moderate period
northwesterly swell continues to abate through the waters with a
new  long period northwesterly swell train arriving Tuesday. A
weak cold  front will bring rain and southerly winds come
Wednesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes
     to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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