526
FXUS66 KMTR 042117
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
217 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Rainfall ending this afternoon from north to south. Some clearing
this afternoon with light isolated showers tonight. Mostly clear
Sunday with a warming trend on track for the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Rain unfolding as expected as of midday with the heaviest having
pushed through with the initial cold front this morning. Areas
from the Bay Area southward will continue to see light-to-moderate
rain into the this afternoon, but as of writing, observed amounts
are generally 0.6-1.5" with the highest amounts being in the
coastal ranges. Clearing will occur rather abruptly through this
afternoon and evening from north to south with visible satellite
showing a sharp cutoff in overcast cloud cover on the back side of
the front. We can expect some degree of isolated showers behind
the front tonight, but instability appears lacking overall which
would hinder the coverage and intensity of any post-frontal
showers a bit. No lightning strikes thus far neither, given the
fairly suppressed nature of the post-frontal convection. Can`t
rule out a strike or two as we go into tonight, but it`s a very
small chance.

Sunday looks to be clear and pleasant, despite chilly temps with
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

The next week is on track to be clear and dry with temps steadily
increasing each day into late week. Ridging dominates as we
settle into a more seasonal pattern. By Friday, expect temperatures
5-10 degrees above normal...mid-to-upper 80s for inland valleys,
upper 70s to lower 80s elsewhere, and upper 60s to lower 70s along
the coast. Friday may be a potential day to highlight an elevated
risk of heat-related illness for sensitive groups in urban areas
of the South Bay and interior East Bay valleys. Stay tuned to the
forecast as this will likely be, yet again, among the warmest
temps some have seen this year so far.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Widespread rain continues into the afternoon before the main rain
band moves south and east. Expect winds to turn to W/NW and staying
breezy behind the band as lingering showers move across the region.
CIGs lift and become VFR behind the main rain band. Expect
moderate to breezy winds to last through the night and into Sunday.

Vicinity of SFO...Rain and MVFR visibilities and CIGs last into the
afternoon with breezy westerly winds. VFR returns in the late
afternoon as the rain band exits, but showers linger and winds stay
breezy through the night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR CIGs with gusty westerly winds are
building along the rain band. VFR returns behind the main rain band
in the late afternoon but the breezy winds last into the late night.
Shower chances linger behind the rain band and these chances last
into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 838 AM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Widespread rain and fresh southwesterly breezes are affecting the
waters. Fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail behind main rain
band with scattered rain showers possible into the evening. Dry
conditions return and winds reduce into Sunday. Gusty winds build
into the middle of the next work week and last into the late week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry
     Bay-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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