Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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861 FXUS64 KOHX 040151 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 851 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to slowly move from SW to NE at this hour. The majority of the activity is south of I-40. Lightning activity is coming down as we`ve lost the daytime heating to really fuel the storms. The latest RAP guidance shows the best surface-based instability remains over our SW counties, but that value of 1500 J/Kg is much lower than earlier and is dropping as is evident on radar; the storms over that area are quickly dying out. With that, do expect widespread thunderstorm activity to greatly dwindle down overnight. We are monitoring the potential for flooding as some of these storms have dumped very heavy rain over a short period of time. If you`re out driving tonight in any of the areas that have received rain today, be careful and watchful for ponding along roadways. The latest CAMs show on and off showers continuing through the overnight period tonight with a few rumbles of thunder here and there. Saturday looks more of the same as today, but perhaps less widespread. We don`t have much forcing to really help storms get going tomorrow, but there will be plenty of instability. I`d call tomorrow`s storms garden variety - pop-up, drop some heavy rain and produce some lightning, maybe even a gust to 30 or 40mph or so, then be done. It will also be hit-or-miss on who will see these storms vs who doesn`t. Just in case, be ready to move any outdoor plans temporarily indoors tomorrow. Outside of thunderstorm chances, Saturday highs will be near 80 for most. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period. Looking at the short term part, maybe some breaks in potential rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon. Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild in low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective developments. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Five Outlook of strong convection being possible near Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range 2.5" to 3.5." && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across Middle TN. The threat will mainly be just to the south and east of Nashville through 03z. IFR/LIFR conditions in any thunderstorms with heavy rain, low vis, and low cigs. Things dry out after 03z and there is a slight chance for light showers overnight. Scattered activity will develop again tomorrow after 16z but should be less widespread than today. Light southerly winds under 6 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 66 82 65 86 / 40 80 50 70 Clarksville 64 80 65 83 / 40 60 40 70 Crossville 61 74 60 79 / 60 90 50 80 Columbia 64 80 63 85 / 60 80 50 80 Cookeville 63 76 62 80 / 50 90 50 80 Jamestown 61 76 60 81 / 60 90 50 80 Lawrenceburg 64 79 63 84 / 60 80 50 80 Murfreesboro 64 79 63 85 / 50 80 50 80 Waverly 64 80 64 84 / 50 70 50 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Baggett SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Mueller