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000
FXUS64 KOUN 200402
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1102 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Rain chances begin increasing tonight as dynamic ascent associated
with an approaching shortwave overspreads an H850 frontal boundary
that sharpens over western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. As
the wave approaches and isentropic lift deepens, elevated instability
spreads northward from central Texas into our area late tonight into
early Saturday morning. Storms could become strong to marginally
severe, primarily across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas,
and lead to some small hail. With little instability prog`d tomorrow,
mostly rain is expected with rainfall potentially lingering through
late Saturday night. Overall, rainfall totals have trended slightly
lower. Most likely range of total rainfall amounts (25th, 50th, 75th
percentiles):

Wichita Falls: 0.37, 1.01, 1.61 inches
Durant: 0.37, 0.77, 1.08 inches
Lawton: 0.08, 0.53, 0.82 inches
Oklahoma City: 0, 0.34, 0.46 inches

Other than the rain, cooler temperatures will be observed tomorrow
with highs in the 50`s and 60`s.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Rain is expected to continue near the Red River into late Saturday
evening and possibly lingering over southeastern Oklahoma early
Sunday morning.

Cool weather continues into Sunday with decreasing clouds. Then, a
weak upper ridge passes overhead and finally pushes the surface high
southeast of our region allowing northeast winds to shift south
beginning Sunday night as a lee-side trough develops. An approaching
southern-stream shortwave then results in a tightening pressure gradient,
and there is a medium chance (40-60%) that wind gusts reach wind advisory
criteria over northwest Oklahoma on Monday. This, along with ERC values
greater than 65%, could lead to elevated fire weather conditions over
northwest Oklahoma. Interestingly, localized flash-drought conditions
have evolved over a small area of northwest Oklahoma and can be seen
on the Oklahoma Mesonet page. Woods County has gone over a 100 days
without a wetting rain (0.25 inches), and this probably bleeds over
into the neighboring counties. A brief warming trend occurs Monday
and Tuesday, before another cold front moves into the area on Tuesday
or Wednesday.

Very warm conditions and severe storm chances return next Thursday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Showers will increase between 9-12z across southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible.
Ceilings will lower into MVFR in these areas, with IFR ceilings
expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Further north, rain
showers will be much lighter and sporadic, with mainly VFR
ceilings. Winds will remain fairly steady from the northeast
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  48  60  45 /   0  40  50  30
Hobart OK         65  46  58  43 /   0  50  70  50
Wichita Falls TX  69  50  56  45 /   0  80  90  70
Gage OK           63  39  58  38 /   0  10  30  20
Ponca City OK     64  44  62  42 /   0  10  20  10
Durant OK         69  52  55  47 /   0  80  90  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08