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000
FXUS64 KOUN 142305
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
605 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 548 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

 - Severe storms likely late Monday and overnight, including a low
risk for tornadoes.

 - Near critical to critical fire weather expected across northern
and western Oklahoma on Tuesday. Elevated fire weather confined to
northwestern Oklahoma will be possible the day before (Monday).

 - Gusty winds expected Monday, continuing overnight through
   Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

After a fairly quiet night, tomorrow will bring both fire weather
and severe storm impacts to the forecast area. Details below.

***Fire Weather*** There is a medium to high likelihood of elevated
RFTIs in far northwest Oklahoma on Monday (mainly Harper and Ellis
counties), with a reasonable worst case scenario of RFTIs climbing
to near critical in this region. Confidence is high in breezy winds
through the afternoon. The main uncertainty is the dryline
(affecting minimum RH values) -- both how far east it mixes and the
timing (several models have the dryline retreating back westward
before peak heating). ERCs in this region are in the 75th to 85th
percentile range.

***Severe Storms*** Looking at possibly two rounds of storms
tomorrow and tomorrow night. The first round would trigger off the
dryline late tomorrow afternoon in central to north Texas as a
shortwave moves over the region. This appears well depicted in the
CAMs, tracking eastward along the Red River (possibly affecting
south central Oklahoma late in the evening). Instability and shear
are plentiful to support severe hail and wind; low level (0-1 km)
SRH appears marginal and more confined to the west, yielding a low
risk for tornadoes early on with this cluster of storms.

The second round would be overnight as the Pacific front surges
eastward under the influence of the upper low. Most of the CAMs seem
less enthusiastic about this round, despite ample instability and
shear (our opinion is that the CAMs are underforecasting convection
given the atmospheric conditions). Additionally, the low level jet
will be quite strong by this point, yielding stronger low level
shear and a higher (though still within the low category) risk of
tornadoes with any storms that do develop.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The main hazard in the long term will be fire weather on Tuesday.

With the passage of the Pacific front Monday night and the arrival
of drier air, most of the forecast area will be primed for higher
RFTIs. Westerly winds will continue to be quite breezy Monday night
through Tuesday ahead of another cold front Tuesday night (which
will bring lighter northwesterly winds). This will create an area of
wind driven RFTIs across northern Oklahoma (elevated to near
critical) intersecting with RH driven RFTIs across western Oklahoma
(elevated to near critical), allowing fire danger to reach critical
in northwest Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon.

Zonal flow will dominate for the rest of the week. A cold front is
set to arrive late Thursday / Thursday night, dropping temperatures
by about 20 degrees. This will also give us some low to moderate
rain chances continuing into the weekend as the 850mb front stalls
across Oklahoma / north Texas.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

South winds will diminish this evening with some high clouds
streaming across the area. Still appears that some MVFR ceilings
will develop, mainly after sunrise impacting all but the far
west/northwest parts of the area. These lower ceilings may linger
through the morning hours before they rise back to VFR and become
more scattered in nature. South winds will again increase Monday
morning as well with gusts around 25kts. Have included a PROB30 at
SPS late Monday afternoon for possibility of some storm
development.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  80  63  80 /   0  30  80   0
Hobart OK         62  82  54  82 /   0  20  80   0
Wichita Falls TX  67  83  60  84 /   0  30  80   0
Gage OK           57  87  53  83 /   0  10  40   0
Ponca City OK     65  81  62  81 /   0  30  90  10
Durant OK         66  79  64  84 /   0  10  60  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30