848
FXUS64 KOUN 072342
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
642 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Much quieter conditions are in place today with mostly sunny skies
and drier westerly/southwesterly surface winds across much of the
area. Winds will become more southerly later this afternoon into
tonight as a surface low develops across southeast Colorado into
the panhandles. This will allow moisture to attempt to return
northward into the area overnight but veering surface winds will
only allow it to make it into central and eastern portions of the
area before a cold front begins to sweep through Wednesday
morning.

Storm chances in our area appear to be a fairly low probability as
the veered flow lends to weak convergence along the boundary.
However, several of the CAMs depict at least scattered convection
developing as early as 10-12z east of I-35, and with plenty of
moisture and instability in place cannot rule out a strong to severe
storm capable of producing large hail. Much more widespread and
significant severe weather appears likely tomorrow afternoon along
and ahead of the front, but by this time the front will have cleared
all but our far southeast counties. For now we have maintained a low
probability (~20%) for storm development in these areas tomorrow
afternoon (mainly Bryan/Atoka counties), with damaging winds and
large hail being the main threats. The rest of our area can expect
dry conditions with a northerly breeze behind the boundary.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure builds into the area behind the cold front, with
drier and mild conditions expected Thursday through Saturday.
Temperatures will reach into the 70s to low 80s for highs each
day, about average for this time of year. By later Saturday into
Sunday, a closed low across the intermountain west will begin to
move eastward, weakening as it approaches our area. At least
modest moisture return is expected ahead of this feature with low
(20-30%) shower and thunderstorm chances entering our western
counties early Sunday morning, moving across the rest of the area
Sunday into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts appear fairly light and
weak instability will temper chances for severe weather, so
overall impact to the area should be fairly low.

Uncertainty increases heading into the early to middle portion of
next week regarding how quickly rain chances will exit, but the
overall synoptic pattern appears fairly unfavorable for organized
severe weather as both instability wind shear remain weak.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Stratus is expected to develop from central Texas up into south
central Oklahoma late tonight, affecting KDUA after 06Z, possibly
moving into central Oklahoma by tomorrow morning. A cold front
will arrive in northwest Oklahoma this evening, moving southeast
through the forecast area overnight and tomorrow with northerly
winds behind it.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  80  54  76 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         57  83  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  66  84  57  78 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           51  80  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     56  78  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         67  89  60  81 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14