954
FXUS64 KOUN 280512
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Dangerous convective environment in place today and into tonight.
Storms have already fired out west with severe and tornado
warnings already issued this morning. A special balloon sounding
issued by the NSSL near Weatherford shows a concerning profile
with 2500 J/kg SBCAPE, 0-1km SRH near 25 kts, effective shear of
60 knots all indicative of a volatile air mass in place. A PDS
Tornado Watch has already been issued for western Oklahoma and
western north Texas with the expectation this will likely be
expanded eastward within the next several hours. Guidance has
trended a bit slower with the forward progression of supercell
thunderstorms, and the latest indication is central Oklahoma
should be impacted by dangerous supercell thunderstorms capable of
producing strong to violent tornadoes within the 3 PM to 9 PM time
frame.

Complicating this is the high potential for very heavy rainfall
which will quickly lead to flash flooding issues where these
storms set up. The WPC has issued a high risk of flash flooding
for parts of east-central Oklahoma, though it should be stressed
that there is uncertainty with the placement of this. Central and
southern Oklahoma are at risk of dangerous flash flooding issues.

Repeated rounds of thunderstorms are expected, and the public
should not let their guard down after a storm has passed.
Many public events are occurring today and with people out of the
office/school, there is a high concern in our office of people
being out on the roads or away from shelters. We urge those who
can to remain near a shelter today as the environment resembles
that of previous historic tornadic outbreaks. Please heed
warnings!

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Thunderstorms should exit our forecast area tomorrow morning.
ADditional forecast details will be given with later packages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Main line of storms is on track to clear all sites except DUA where
an arrival around 2 AM is expected. Farther west near WWR, a small
line of TS may survive its journey east and impact PNC during the
pre-dawn hours, although this is too uncertain for mention in the
TAF. Otherwise, some visby restrictions and MVFR ceilings are likely
to develop well in the wake of the main line of storms before VFR
resumes by mid/late morning. DUA remains likely to see another bout
of TS by the afternoon ahead of the dryline and cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  80  61  85 /  10  10   0  10
Hobart OK         51  82  60  88 /   0  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  56  83  63  86 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           45  82  57  93 /   0  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     49  78  57  87 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         59  82  60  83 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ004>008-010>013-015>020-
     022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93/LUB