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000
FXUS64 KOUN 091745
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

As of 06Z, the cold front extended from south-central Oklahoma
and northeastward towards Hughes/Coal Counties. A warm front was
draped across north Texas. The quasi-stationary cold front is
expected to retreat as a pseudo warm front today and the true warm
front remains to our south. With some subsidence occurring on the
back side of the lead shortwave along with weakening isentropic
ascent, there could be a lull in precipitation over our western
counties before the next wave of rain moves in. However, there
are already storms that have developed in far eastern New Mexico
and this activity could translate into our western north Texas
counties after 12Z this morning. Thermodynamic and kinematic
profiles suggest a few of these storms this morning could produce
severe hail. As for southern and southeastern Oklahoma, shower and
thunderstorms could linger over south-central and southeastern
Oklahoma until mid-morning.

While the quasi-stationary boundary remains over our area today,
the true warm front is expected to remain south of our area. In
fact, daytime high temperatures for extreme western parts of our
CWA will be much cooler (near 60 deg F). The center of the closed
upper low is prog`d to skirt northern Mexico this morning, reach
El Paso by mid-day, and head slowly ENE-ward towards our western
north Texas counties tonight. In response, a surface low develops
in the vicinity of our western north Texas counties late evening.
Given strong dynamic ascent, low to moderate instability, and
strong bulk shear, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms over
western north Texas. With H500 temperatures dropping to around
-20C as the center of the closed low passes over western north
Texas tonight, the severe weather threat could persist over this
small area well into tonight and early Wednesday morning. The main
threat with these storms is large hail. With the multiple rounds
of rainfall (mostly convective in nature) expected, there is a
slight risk of flash flooding over western north Texas and far
southern Oklahoma.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

The closed low is prog`d to pass over the southern plains during the
day Wednesday, though models still differ with where the center of
the low will be. Nevertheless, rain remains likely through
Wednesday, with chances exiting our CWA by Wednesday evening.
Daytime high temperatures on Wednesday will be markedly cooler
with rainfall persisting as the cold upper low passes overhead.
Then, a dry conditions and a warming trend is forecast as highs
rise into the 70`s-80`s beginning Thursday. Very warm conditions
are expected on Sunday with highs in the 80s and potentially low
90`s. Temperatures appear to trend downward slightly from Sunday,
but still, 70`s and 80`s for early next week. Shower and
thunderstorm chances return on Monday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

MVFR with periods of IFR conditions possible mainly southern
Oklahoma and north Texas terminals as waves of SHRA/TSRA pass from
west to east through the forecast period. Wind will stay gusty at
times from a northerly direction. First wave of organized
precipitation will continue to spread slowly east over southern
Oklahoma and northern Texas this afternoon, with additional area
spreading over a larger area tonight and tomorrow morning as main
upper low translates eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  50  60  46 /  50  80  70  10
Hobart OK         59  48  67  44 /  70  90  50   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  52  64  46 /  80  70  70  10
Gage OK           63  43  70  41 /  30  40  20   0
Ponca City OK     68  50  65  46 /  10  40  40  10
Durant OK         67  58  68  49 /  80  80  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...11