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000
FXUS63 KPAH 211110
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
610 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues through Monday night along with below normal
  temperatures.

- Calm winds and clear skies will lead to an ideal setup for areas
  of frost tonight as lows drop into the mid 30s.

- Chance of rain returns Tuesday, mainly late afternoon and evening,
  but amounts look rather light. Additional chances possible late
  week.

- Temperatures return to above normal next weekend with highs in
  the 80s looking likely. Pattern turns more active as well,
  with strong storms possible sometime in the April 27-30
  timeframe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A 1032mb surface high located over northeast Colorado early this
morning will drift southeast to the MO/AR border by 12z Monday. A
decent pressure gradient over our area today will result in a
healthy northerly wind helping to keep high temperatures slightly
cooler than Saturday. As the high moves closer, winds will go calm
tonight. This combined with clear skies will allow temperatures to
fall into the mid 30s across much of the region. Have opted to issue
a Frost Advisory given the ideal setup for areas of frost. Wouldn`t
be surprised to see a few locations dip close to freezing, although
most locations likely will be in the 35-37 range.

Southerly winds develop on Monday, helping to boost highs back into
the mid to upper 60s. Tuesday looks even warmer as a breezy
southwest wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front. Models
have come into better agreement the past 24 hours, indicating the
most likely timing will be late afternoon and evening. QPF amounts
look quite light, only ranging from a few hundreths to 0.15" for
much of the cwa (highest amounts more likely in the north).

Wednesday and Thursday look largely dry, although the
deterministic GFS and Canadian hint at a 700mb wave trying to
generate some shower activity down in Arkansas Wednesday night
into Thursday that trys to lift northeast into part of our area.
Most guidance suggests this remaining southwest of us.

Upper level ridging over the Plains will push east across our region
on Friday and become centered over the eastern U.S. next weekend.
Robust southwest flow will develop leading to a good moisture surge
through our region. The primary trough remains well to our west
until Monday the 29th. However, a lead shortwave Thursday night into
Friday will lift northeast across the Midwest. Most guidance
suggests the heaviest QPF associated with this wave will stay well
north and west of our cwa. However, we may get some activity to
develop as a warm front lifts through the region. It is worth noting
that the GFS is further southeast with this initial wave, which
would support higher QPF and greater spatial coverage Thursday night
into Friday for the Quad State.

Ensembles are in reasonable agreement suggesting our best chance for
rain holds off until next Sunday or Monday (April 28-29). This is
when the primary upper trough is expected to lift northeast
across the Midwest. Given this is still 7-8 days out, the
details are murky at best. However, the overall synoptic setup
does support the threat for severe thunderstorms during this
time period. Dewpoints are expected to at least be into the mid
60s and could potentially push near 70 degrees. The GEFS has
backed off somewhat with regards to instability compared to last
night`s run, but still indicates a 60-80% chance of CAPE
exceeding 1000 J/kg. CIPS analogs show a rather broad area with
decent severe probabilities (50-60%). For now it`s just
something to continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Mid and high clouds early this morning will clear and give way
to mainly clear skies the rest of the period. May have some SCT
cu development this afternoon. Winds will be N/NW around 10-12
kts today with gusts of 15-18 kts before becoming calm tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Frost Advisory from midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight to 8 AM
     CDT /9 AM EDT/ Monday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP