Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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088 FXUS65 KPSR 010502 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1002 PM MST Tue Apr 30 2024 .Update...06Z Aviation Discussion && .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures will continue for the foreseeable future, although there will be some slightly cooler temperatures through the middle of this week and this weekend. A couple bouts of breezy to locally windy conditions through mid-week and this weekend headline an otherwise quiet forecast into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Zonal flow encompasses the region this afternoon as latest satellite shows clear skies across the Desert Southwest. Clear to mostly clear skies will continue through the rest of the week, as the most noteworthy weather feature will be a weak trough brushing the region mid to late week. This trough will cool temperatures slightly, with lower deserts more solidly in the low to mid-90s for highs through the rest of the week. Ensembles depict a more potent trough diving from the Gulf of Alaska southward into the Pacific Northwest late this week, with potential impacts of breezy to locally windy conditions developing across the region at some point over the weekend. Ensemble clusters currently have a decent amount of spread in how quickly this closed low will dig and progress eastward across western CONUS during this period, so timing and magnitude of impacts remain uncertain for the weekend. Nonetheless, we should expect to see a bump in winds progressing west to east as early as Saturday and continuing into early next week. Further cooling temperatures should result due to the negative height anomalies that are expected to spread into the region during this period, with current NBM highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s by early next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns are anticipated during the TAF period. Winds will follow typical diurnal tendencies with occasional breezes in the mid and upper teens during the afternoon hours. An extended period of S`rly crosswinds can be expected at KPHX during the E to W transition. Besides a FEW passing clouds over the region later in the TAF period, skies will be mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry conditions will persist this week and into this weekend with high temperatures around 3-5 degrees above normal each day. Winds will be light and follow typical upslope/downvalley patterns Tuesday and Wednesday before increased breeziness arrives Thursday with gusts reaching the 15-20 mph range across much of the area. Windy conditions will also be possible across the western districts on Thursday as a dry cold front passes through the Colorado River Valley. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 8-15% each day. Moisture recovery will range from poor to fair each night, or around 25-50%. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Young AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Young/95