Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
961 FXUS65 KPUB 300459 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1059 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will warm to around 10 degrees above normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. - Critical fire weather conditions for portions of the area Tuesday and Wednesday. - Quick-hitting system will bring brief period of cooler air and some precipitation Wednesday evening through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 527 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Tonight, there is GFS/NAM/ECMWF agreement that a trough axis will slide eastward from the Pacific NW into Montana and Wyoming. The best vort energy (forcing) and moisture will pass north of the area overnight into Tuesday. This feature will help push a weak cold front southeastward into northwestern Colorado, nearing the San Juans and central mountains by dawn on Tuesday. With the passage of the front and trough it might be enough to squeak an isolated snow shower across the central mountains in Lake County, but anticipate the area will remain mostly dry otherwise with clear skies tonight into Tuesday night. During the day on Tuesday, winds at 15-20 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph along with minimum RH values in the lower teens will allow for potential fire weather conditions in the San Luis Valley. With this in mind, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from the early afternoon hours into the evening on Tuesday. For temperatures, the forecast is closest to the National Blend of Models (NBM). Lows tonight and Tuesday night will range from the 40s for the I-25 corridor into the SE Plains to the lower 30s in the San Luis Valley to the mid 20s in higher terrain. Given the weak nature of the front, abundant sunshine will allow for temps to recover nicely again on Tuesday with highs ranging from the lower to mid 80s in the SE Plains to the mid to upper 70s along the Front Range to the lower 70s in the San Luis Valley to to the 40s to 50s in higher terrain. /04-Woodrum/ && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 212 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Wednesday into Thursday, there is GFS/ECWMF/Canadian model agreement that the next upper level trough will approach from the northwest on Wednesday and mostly pass north of the area on Thursday. This system will dive a little further south and bring a better chance for showers and possibly even thunderstorms to the area. Still, the best forcing with this system will be north of the area, and only anticipate 0.10-0.25" of QPF at most with this system across the area. Snow showers will return to the higher elevations of the central Mountains by Wednesday evening with the chance (25-35% probability) of showers mixing in and possibly thunderstorms (10-20% probability) entering the forecast late Wednesday evening for Teller County and the Palmer Divide. The better chance (30-40% probability) for snow showers for higher terrain and for showers for the I-25 corridor will be on Thursday when the trough axis passes through the area. Before moisture reaches the area, fire weather will be possible in the San Luis Valley and SE Plains, where a Fire Weather Watch is in place Wednesday afternoon into the evening. For Friday into the weekend, GFS/ECMWF ensembles are in agreement that the forecast will be mostly dry across the area. A weak mid-level short wave will pass mostly north of the area and developer further into the central Plains on Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, a westerly to southwesterly dry mid-level flow and high pressure should keep SE Colorado mostly dry through this period. For temperatures, ahead of the trough with an enhanced southerly flow, Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs ranging from the lower to mid 80s for the SE Plains to the mid to upper 70s along the Front Range to the lower 70s in the San Luis Valley to the 40s and 50s in higher terrain. Temps will cool 15-20 degrees on Thursday with highs around 5-10 degrees below normal. After that, temperatures will progressively warm each day into the weekend, warming to around 10 degrees above normal by Sunday. /04-Woodrum/ && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions and dry weather are expected across the TAF sites this period. Generally clear conditions will be in place, though mid/high clouds will occasionally move overhead, especially late in the period. Lighter winds early this morning will become west northwest later this morning into the midday, while speeds/gusts also increase. Should see these gusts continue into the early afternoon with a diminishing trend expected later into the afternoon and evening. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ224. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for COZ224-232-233-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...WOODRUM LONG TERM...WOODRUM AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ