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000
FXUS61 KRLX 180705
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
305 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms possible overnight with a weak cold
front. Dry Thursday. Another round of showers and storms Friday
morning with a cold front, cooler this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Thursday...

A weak cold front will continue to push southward through the
area early this morning, producing some showers and
thunderstorms. Drier air can be expected today behind the front.
Although temperatures will be slightly cooler than Wednesday,
afternoon readings will still be well above normal for this
time of year with the central and southern lowlands expected to
hit the low 80s.

A stronger cold front will approach the area late Thursday
night, providing a chance for showers and thunderstorms after
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Thursday...

Upper level low pressure transiting the Upper Great Lakes drags a
cold front through the region Friday morning through early
afternoon. Ahead of this feature, expect remnant convection from
overnight activity out to the west charging eastward and weakening.
Even the more bullish models have backed off on the magnitude of
conditional instability available with this feature, with the mean
now down toward 500J/kg effective CAPE. Kinematic fields will be
modestly strong with deep layer shear around 35KT and 0-1km SRH 100-
150m2/s2, so couldn`t completely rule out a stronger storm
persisting from the west despite movement into a less unstable
environment. Actual frontal passage then occurs during the day with
an additional line of relatively weak showers or perhaps a
thunderstorms possible through early Friday afternoon until the
front sweeps east. Rainfall amounts will be relatively light,
perhaps a tenth to a quarter inch basin average with any more
persistent convection yielding perhaps half to one inch of quick
and isolated accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Thursday...

Mainly dry and cooler conditions are expected through the weekend in
the wake of cold frontal passage with slightly below normal
temperatures. With remnant tropical moisture just off to the south,
couldn`t completely rule out some diurnal showers over the mountains
Sunday, but chances are low. Some marginal frost conditions could
develop across the north for Sunday morning or Monday morning and
with the growing season now started, highlights may be warranted.

An active northern stream with very cold air parked north of the
Great Lakes keeps temperatures around normal through the balance of
the period. The next chance for precipitation comes with increasing
southwesterly flow Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Thursday...

A weak cold front will continue to push southward through the
area early this morning, producing some showers and
thunderstorms. Expect VFR conditions outside of the
precipitation, unless some fog is able to form in areas that
received rainfall this evening.

Dry weather with VFR conditions can be expected behind the front
today and Thursday evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium with fog formation.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms early this morning could vary. Fog may or may not
form early this morning in areas that received rainfall this
evening.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/18/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Spotty IFR possible along the mountains on Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RPY