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000
FXUS61 KRNK 212254
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
654 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will build into the region tonight into
Monday. Temperatures will start to moderate heading into the
middle of the week with the approach of a cold front. This front
is expected to cross our region on Wednesday with scattered
showers mainly across the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 PM EDT Sunday...

Our forecast is on track. Light rain is currently exiting the
far southeast portion of the region, and clouds are thinning in
the west. As the night progresses, clouds will continue to
diminish from west to east. Have made minor tweaks to hour
temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to reflect the latest
conditions and expected trends through the evening hours.


As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Light rain ending this afternoon

2) Frost in the mountains Monday morning.

3) Dry and sunny Monday

A frontal boundary continues its quick exit to our east this
afternoon. Light rain in our area continues to fall in only a
few spots in northern NC and Southside VA. This will end within
the next few hours. However, clouds will remain into this
evening for the mountain areas, clearing a bit and then
reforming overnight as winds become northwesterly. High pressure
will move in from the west, clearing the skies for the entire
region by Monday morning. Some of the coolest temperatures of
the week will create some frost in the mountains. In our eastern
zones, where the growing season has begun, a frost advisory has
been issued for Rockbridge county, as frost could form there for
Monday morning as well. Lows in the low 30s west of the Blue
Ridge, and in the mid 30s to low 40s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry conditions for Monday night and Tuesday.
2. Light rain arrives by early Wednesday morning.
3. Patchy frost possible Monday night and Wednesday night.

With high pressure passing overhead Monday night, we can expect
chilly overnight lows under clear skies and light winds that
will make for efficient radiational cooling. Lows will bottom
out in the low to mid 30s, cool enough to support patchy frost,
and will likely touch freezing in some of the mountain valleys.

High pressure will slide off the southeast coast on Tuesday,
with southwesterly winds becoming established ahead of our next
cold front. Afternoon high temperatures will be near normal for
the second half of April, ranging from the mid 60s to the low
70s. Showers will arrive during Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, though won`t progress much past the crest of the Blue
Ridge, breaking up in the downslope windflow. Rainfall will
remain modest for most, ranging from a few tenths of an inch
locally across southeast West Virginia and western Virginia, to
a few hundredths further east for the remainder of the
mountains and foothills.

High pressure building in behind the passage of the cold front
across our area Wednesday afternoon will build east from the
Great Lakes to New England during the evening, and will then
wedge southward across the Mid-Atlantic. This will result in a
cool northeasterly windflow across our area by sunrise Thursday
under mostly clear skies. Temperatures will again fall into the
low/mid 30 for areas west of the Blue Ridge, however winds may
remain just strong enough to limit the potential for frost
formation, but will not outright eliminate it.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Cooler than normal temperatures for Thursday, warmer Friday
and Saturday.
2. Rain chances increase for Friday.

Cool high pressure, centered over New England on Thursday, will
control our weather pattern. Given the east to northeasterly
windflow off of the Atlantic, kept afternoon highs a few degrees
below model forecast guidance. May see a few sprinkles develop
along the Blue Ridge Thursday night as marine air is carried
into the higher terrain.

Chances for shower activity will increase for Friday and
Saturday as a deep low pressure system exits the central Rockies
and advances toward the Great Lakes, with an associated warm
front lifting northward across the Tennessee and Ohio River
Valleys. That stated, still some uncertainty of the timing of
when any rainfall will arrive for our area. Winds shifting more
southerly by this time will allow for a gradual warm up of
afternoon temperatures that will be closer to normal for late
April.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions will be persistent for the next 24 hours. Some
light rain towards the NC/VA border will end soon, leaving a
mid-deck of clouds across the RNK CWA. Clouds will begin to
break up in the mountains of SW VA and southern WV this
afternoon, then those clear skies will spread to the entire area
by Monday morning. Winds on Monday will turn to the northwest at
about 5-10 MPH.

Confidence in the above scenario is high.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Drier air will provide good flying weather through Tuesday.
Another cold front will arrive during Tuesday night into
Wednesday to bring the next potential for MVFR ceilings and rain
showers in the mountains. Thursday looks dry and supporting of
VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ024.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/VFJ
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...VFJ/WP