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000
FXUS61 KRNK 171040
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
640 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary across the region will be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms through tonight. A low pressure
system tracking through the Great Lakes will push a cold front
through the region this weekend. Temperatures will remain above
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1. Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible today.

Stalled front is currently situated over the Carolinas and then
snakes north through West Virginia. This stalled boundary will
lift back north again today as a warm front. Light
east/southeast winds will transition to southerly by late this
morning.

As a result, will see increasing cloud cover and moisture so it
will feel a little more humid today than yesterday for most.
Decaying complex of thunderstorms of the Midwest shifts east and
maybe have some showers entering the area by daybreak. Coverage
of showers today will be limited and thunderstorm chances are
even less certain, but cannot rule out a couple of storms later
this evening if we can get breaks in the clouds over the
western mountains.

Temperatures continue to remain above normal with highs once
again in the 70s for the mountains and low 80s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
      As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Break from active weather Thursday

2: Showers and storm back again Friday

3: Temperatures well above normal

Thursday will provide a brief break in the recently active and
unsettled weather our region has received. A shortwave ridge and
some weak high pressure will shut off precipitation in between
fronts. A wave of low pressure riding along a boundary will make its
way from the TN valley through the southern OH Valley and then
further north to the eastern Great Lakes on Friday. Given the
position of this wave just to the west of our CWA, the best coverage
for showers and storms Friday will be in the mountains of the NC
High Country, SW VA, and southern WV. As discussed above, this wave
is fairly quick paced, so timing for precipitation will be in the
late morning through the afternoon, clearing out around dusk.


It will feel summery with temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s,
about 10-15F above normal. The weak front and passing wave on Friday
will cool us down about 10 degrees, but it certainly won`t feel
brisk.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
      As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Dry and cool conditions through the weekend

2: Low confidence on next system

Over the weekend under the influence of slowly increasing surface
pressure from the west, this weekend will be quiet and cool down to
just below normal. Confidence is low on how the synoptic environment
will evolve beyond that. A boundary sitting to our south may move
north under the influence of a broad mid-level trough, providing
forcing for showers as early as Monday morning. Other solutions
indicate this boundary will be held south and we will wait until
later in the week for the axis of said trough to create a
sufficiently unsettled environment. Have placed slight chance PoPs
in the forecast Monday and Tuesday, but the extended forecast is
liable to change in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR should continue throughout today, but some showers move into
the mountains today and low end VFR cigs could settle in for
mountain terminals with passing rounds of showers. Isolated
chance for thunderstorms to develop, but confidence is not high
enough to put TS in the TAFs.

Southwest winds increase today and could be gusty at times for
the higher elevations. Some 20 to 25kt gusts are certainly
possible at times through early evening.

Winds subside a bit overnight and skies will begin to clear.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

A low pressure system and stronger cold front approach the area
through Saturday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with associated MVFR flight conditions, are expected ahead of
this system, especially each afternoon and evening. Most of the
time should be VFR. Could also have some MVFR to IFR fog at
night.

Sunday looks dry and VFR at this time.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BMG