Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KSGF 280450
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost is expected again tonight with temperatures
  dropping to near freezing.

- A warming trend will bring temperatures well above normal for
  Friday through Monday.

- Windy conditions are expected Friday with wind gusts over 40
  mph possible northwest of I-44.

- An active weather period Sunday into Monday with some strong
  to possibly severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level low was
located over the western Great Lakes with a trough axis shifting
east through the area. Upper energy in the southern plains was
producing some showers over Oklahoma, but this is expected to
stay south of the area. Another upper low was still off the west
coast with upper ridging shifting east into the Rockies. It`s
this next system that may bring some active weather to the area
Sunday into Monday. Closer to the ground, high pressure was over
the area with a light wind and clear sky. Temperatures have
rebounded from the mid 20s this morning into the mid 40s to low
50s so far this afternoon. Air remains dry with dew points in
the low to mid 20s.

Tonight: The upper trough will shift east of the area tonight
with upper ridge axis starting to move into the western CWA by
12z Thursday. Surface high will be overhead and then shift
further south with a light south wind developing towards
sunrise. Temperatures will likely drop quickly this evening
after sunset with dew points in the 20s. Lows tonight will be
slightly warmer than last night closer to freezing, but low
enough for a widespread frost.

Thursday: Upper ridge will continue to build back into the area
with low level warm advection setting up over the area. The air
will remain dry with plenty of sunshine and we should see
temperatures rise back up into the mid 60s across the area.

Thursday Night: Low level warm advection will persist across the
area and we should see lows back in the low to mid 40s. Some
low lying areas in the eastern Ozarks may still dip into the
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Windy conditions Friday: A strong pressure gradient will start
to set up over the area, especially north and west of the I-44
corridor, in between the departing high pressure system and a
developing low pressure in the plains. NBM probabilistic data
shows 80-100% probabilities of wind gusts at or above 40 mph on
Friday northwest of the I-44 corridor. With RH values in the 30s
and 40s on Friday, the combination of wind and low RH will bring
elevated fire weather conditions into the region.

Warming trend continues into early next week: The strong
southerly low level flow ahead of the low in the plains will
continue to advect warmer air and Gulf moisture into the region.
Highs will return to the 70s on Friday through Monday with some
low 80s possible Sunday and Monday.

Active weather possible Sunday into Monday: The upper level low
currently off the northwest coast will begin to carve out a
deeper trough over the southwest U.S. over the weekend with
broad southwest flow over the central into southern plains. Low
level flow will continue to draw in warmer air and Gulf moisture
with a warm frontal boundary setting up around the northern
portion of the CWA and a dry line shifting east into the plains.
CIPS/CSU severe weather signals continue to highlight areas in
the CWA on both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Calm winds at the start
of the forecast period will increase out of the southwest to
near 10 kt with an occasional gust to 15 kt after 18Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Record High Temperatures:

March 30:
KUNO: 82/1963
KVIH: 80/1967

April 1:
KUNO: 86/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1:
KSGF: 62/1946

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Didio
CLIMATE...Camden


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.