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000
FXUS64 KSHV 180245
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
945 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mid and high clouds are a plenty this evening as the subtropical
jet persists ahead of deep troughing aloft nearing Srn Baja, with
these elevated cigs quite thick on the evening satellite imagery
from Cntrl/S TX E along the Gulf Coast states. There has been some
erosion in the cigs this evening over portions of extreme NE TX
into SE OK/adjacent SW AR, although this should be short-lived as low
stratus should again develop overnight and advect N. Some of the
various short term progs continue to suggest that isolated -SHRA
may develop late tonight over portions of N LA/far Srn AR/adjacent
sections of E TX possibly due to weak ripples in the perturbed
flow aloft, and thus have maintained slight chance pops for these
areas, while adding low pops to portions of far Srn AR. A weak
pressure gradient should also persist overnight, thus keeping the
air mixed beneath these various cigs, with 02Z temps likely not
dropping much more tonight. Did make some minor tweaks to temps
mainly over Srn AR, but otherwise, the remainder of the forecast
is in good shape.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For the 18/00Z TAFs, MVFR to lower VFR CIGs will continue through
the evening hours, increasing in sky coverage from BKN/SCT to OVC
while descending to MVFR areawide, with borderline IFR CIGs
possible near daybreak. Slight chances of showers and storms will
return overnight, increasing in coverage and confidence into the
day tomorrow. Prevailing BR where impacts look most reasonable.
Southerly and southeasterly winds will continue overnight at
speeds of 5 to 10 kts before picking up tomorrow, when gusts of 15
to 20 kts will be possible.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  87  68  82 /  20  20  30  20
MLU  71  83  66  80 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  66  83  58  71 /  10  30  50  20
TXK  69  85  63  73 /  20  30  50  20
ELD  67  84  63  74 /  20  20  50  20
TYR  70  86  64  80 /  20  30  30  20
GGG  70  85  65  81 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  70  87  66  86 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...26