National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161738
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

For the update...widespread cloud cover continues to slow heating
a bit despite strong warm air advection pattern still underway.
Having said that, 15z observations across our northern most zones
showing a more rapid climb where precipitation has been slow to
redevelop and have therefore increased temperatures across
portions of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR. Taking a look at some CAM
output as well as HRRR and new 12z NAM output, coverage does not
appear to be as significant as previous NBM runs had suggested
across our northwest half for the remainder of the day as well as
overnight tonight. This seems plausible given the upstream forcing
is expected to remain mostly north and northwest of our region
through tonight. SFC boundary will likely remain northwest of our
region as well so for these reasons, have lowered pops to chance
category across our northwest half for the remainder of the day
and into the first half of this evening. Any severe convection
would be very isolated this evening and most likely will remain
north and west of our region as well.

Update already sent...13.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A vertically stacked surface and upper-low are forecast to
translate east into the Central Plains today allowing for
increased mid-level southwest flow aloft across the ArkLaTex. A
longitudinally oriented surface boundary from the base of the low
will move east across Texas today and move into the ArkLaTex this
evening before becoming east-west oriented and nearly stationary
by Wednesday morning. Convergence along the frontal boundary
within an airmass loaded with moisture will allow for showers and
thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and tonight. With
the stronger forcing and instability focused closer to the
evolving mid-latitude low, the severe threat across the ArkLaTex
will be limited with no significant threats expected. Afternoon
high temperatures will range from the mid 80s across north
Louisiana to the mid 70s across the I-30 corridor.

Frontal boundary to become oriented parallel to the upper-level
west-southwest flow this evening allowing precipitation to
translate northeast of the ArkLaTex while gradually diminishing.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s.

On Wednesday, upper-flow to become nearly zonal allowing for
neutral instability characterized by widespread cloud cover. Not
expecting much in the way of precipitation, however can`t rule out
a stray shower or thunderstorm. High temperatures on Wednesday to
average in the 80s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A surface low across Oklahoma will be driven east as high pressure
surges south across the Great Plains. A surface boundary in the
wake of the low and ahead of the approaching surface high will
serve as the focus for convection Thursday evening with a few
strong to severe thunderstorms possible across portions of
southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and northeast Texas.

Surface high to build across the region on Friday, becoming
centered across the Red River Valley of north Texas by Monday.
The combination of increased cold-air advection at the surface
along with an upper-level disturbance drifting across the region
could result in periods of widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms from Friday night through much of the weekend.
Conditions to improve late in the weekend as upper-level ridging
builds areawide and the surface high becomes centered across the
ArkLaTex. Temperatures on Sunday to range from highs in the 60s to
lows on Monday morning in the upper 40s. Otherwise, a gradual
warming trend expected thereafter. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Cloud coverage continues to impact local terminals this afternoon
with a mix of low to mid-level CIGs. Latest obs from area
ASOS/AWOS show a mix of VFR to MVFR across the region given sky
conditions. CIGs will fall through the period, with many
terminals falling to MVFR/IFR overnight, with some terminal
recovery expected through sunrise, Wednesday. Latest CAM`s
continue to advertise SHRA, maybe some brief TSRA, across the
I-30 corridor, impacting KTXK closer to 00z. Prevailed the breezy
southerlies to start the period, with winds looking to fall off a
bit overnight. A stray shower or two can not be ruled out
overnight with the lower CIGs in place. As a result, BR and some
minimal VIS limitation has been included to terminals expecting
lower CIGs.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  86  70  87 /  20  10  10  30
MLU  70  84  68  84 /  10  10  10  30
DEQ  64  83  64  84 /  20   0  10  30
TXK  68  84  67  86 /  30   0  10  40
ELD  68  84  66  84 /  30   0  10  40
TYR  70  84  69  86 /  20   0  10  30
GGG  70  84  68  86 /  20   0  10  30
LFK  70  87  69  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...53