Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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012 FXUS64 KSHV 301124 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 624 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 422 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The morning satellite imagery indicates areas of dense FG developing in VC of a weak stationary front extending from SE OK across much of SW AR into the far Nrn parishes of N LA. Areas of dense FG have also developed farther S across Deep E TX and adjacent SE TX into NCntrl LA, with the FG beginning to advect N across these areas. Traffic cams reflect these satellite observations, with the FG expected to become more widespread over these areas through and shortly after daybreak. Thus, have hoisted a Dense FG Adv for McCurtain County OK into much of SW AR/N LA and Deep E TX through 15Z before the FG lifts/begins to scatter out. Will continue to monitor observations this morning for the need of expanding the Adv into more areas of E TX/remainder of extreme NW LA/SW AR. A weak Srly low level flow will resume today in wake of the convective overchurning as a result of the early morning MCS Monday, with stronger insolation yielding a return of above normal temps areawide, as readings top out in the mid to upper 80s. The remnant stationary front over the Nrn zones will eventually wash out later this morning, with quiet conditions weatherwise continuing as well beneath the zonal flow aloft. Low level moisture will eventually begin to deepen by and after daybreak Wednesday, with the short term progs trying to key in on a weak perturbation aloft that will traverse the area once the moisture profile begins to deepen. Widely scattered convection will be possible especially during the afternoon once diurnal heating is maximized, with low to mid chance pops returning to E TX/much of N LA. Above normal temps will continue though, with reading comparable to what is expected later today. Thank you WFO`s LZK/LCH/HGX for coordination on the Dense FG Adv this morning. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 422 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The flow aloft will become increasingly SW across the Srn Plains/Lower MS Valley Wednesday afternoon, ahead of the next upper trough currently over the Pacific NW, that will translate E through the Rockies Wednesday night/Thursday. A lead shortwave trough is progged to develop and eject NE across SW and Cntrl TX Wednesday evening, before entering E TX late. This shortwave is expected to take on a negative tilt and begin to amplify overnight, thus enhancing a 30-40kt SSWrly LLJ over Cntrl and Ern TX. Large scale forcing will increase in earnest Wednesday evening along/ahead of the trough, with convection deepening along the dryline before accelerating E across TX overnight. The greatest instability will remain well off to our W Wednesday evening, with the resultant convection expected to weaken in intensity as it surges E. However, the threat for heavy rainfall will increase overnight through the day Thursday with the trough passage, with widespread QPF of 1-3 inches, with isolated higher amounts possible, with the heaviest totals generally in VC of the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA. The NBM remains a bit too slow vs the various deterministic guidance which are in good agreement, and thus have raised/expanded categorical/likely pops over much of the region Thursday. While the heavier rains should shift off to the E Thursday night, a perturbed flow will continue under W flow, especially ahead of a weak sfc front that will try and shift into NE TX/SE OK/SW AR late Thursday night/Friday morning. Given its shallow depth and continued SW flow aloft, this bndry should hang up in VC of the higher terrain of the Ouachitas, but still could focus periods of scattered to numerous convection over the region Thursday night, aided by forcing aloft in the disturbed flow. What`s left of this sfc front may wash out Friday, although periods of unsettled weather will continue. Portions of the upcoming weekend may be still be salvaged though as an perturbations aloft may trend to be weaker, although isolated to widely scattered convection will still be possible. Should also see a warming trend commence again for the weekend, with a return to above normal temps despite the potential for convection each day. At this time, the ensembles are reducing the extent of convection by early next week, with the warmest temps so far this spring season as widespread 90 degree temps are possible by Tuesday as the deep flow becomes drier and more SW ahead of upper troughing that will swing ENE through the Rockies into the Plains, thus amplifying ridging aloft over the region and Lower MS Valley. 15 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 For the 30/12Z TAFs, areas of dense fog have developed across the ArkLaTex at area terminals, resulting in periods of drops to IFR and LIFR VIS with VV CIGs. This fog should rapidly burn off after daybreak, returning quickly to VFR conditions, followed by development of a Cu field during the afternoon hours. Winds will be light and variable to near calm overnight, becoming easterly and southerly during the day at speeds of 5 to 10 kts. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 87 66 87 71 / 0 0 30 40 MLU 86 63 88 67 / 0 0 20 10 DEQ 85 61 86 66 / 0 0 20 40 TXK 87 64 87 68 / 0 0 20 40 ELD 86 61 88 66 / 0 0 20 20 TYR 86 67 85 67 / 0 0 40 70 GGG 86 65 85 67 / 0 0 40 50 LFK 87 67 86 69 / 10 0 50 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for ARZ050-051- 059>061-071>073. LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LAZ003>006- 010>013-017>020. OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077. TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ151>153- 165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...26