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000
FXUS64 KSJT 151939
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
239 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Late this afternoon, skies were mostly cloudy as mid-level
moisture was streaming into west Texas from the southwest.
Southerly surface flow was advecting a warm and humid airmass into
the region, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. A
dryline was analyzed from Lubbock southward through the Permian
Basin and should mix eastward through early evening. CAPE values
of 2500 J/kg were prevalent in the warm sector. Strong to severe
storms should start developing by around 5pm along the dryline
during peak heating. The best dynamics to support isolated to
scattered storms with large hail will be across the Big Country,
especially north of I-20. However, chances for storms will exist
as far south as San Angelo this evening. Another round of storms
could occur overnight as a cold front will sweep through the area,
but this will be dependent on how much storm coverage occurs
during the evening. By tomorrow, a much drier airmass will move
into the area, ending any further chances for storms. Highs
tomorrow should be in the upper 80s to low 90s, although heat
index values should be lower due to the lower humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Main upper level low moves northeast across the central US and
effectively dry slots West Central Texas. Dry westerly surface
winds will boost temperatures up into the 80s in most areas, and
even the 90s across the Hill Country which is particularly
susceptible to the west winds and downsloping. Model blends are
showing the hottest day to be Thursday with 850 MB temperatures
soaring above 25C across the western Concho valley and Big
Country, helping push temperatures well above the 90 degree mark.

Stronger cold front arrives on Saturday, setting the stage for a
more widespread rainfall event as low level moisture rises up and
over the frontal boundary. Models have their differences this far
out with just where the front may stall and where the overrunning
precip will set up, but model blends have boosted POPs up some for
the weekend and will go with that for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR and breezy conditions expected for the rest of the afternoon.
However, thunderstorms could impact sites across the Big Country
and as far south as San Angelo no later than 00Z. Storm impacts
should be brief but could occur anytime between 23Z and 04Z. MVFR
ceilings should develop in the wake of any storms overnight,
before improving tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     58  87  58  90 /  40   0   0   0
San Angelo  59  89  58  93 /  40   0   0   0
Junction    67  93  63  97 /  30  10   0  10
Brownwood   65  87  59  90 /  50  10   0   0
Sweetwater  57  87  58  88 /  30   0   0   0
Ozona       58  87  60  90 /  30   0   0  10
Brady       67  89  63  92 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SK