528
FXUS62 KTBW 081308
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
908 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Another clear and mild morning across West Central Florida. We
will once again see dry conditions and temperatures warming up
quickly. Highs are expected to get into the mid to upper 90`s in
the interior of the state. No changes needed to the forecast at
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Today and Thursday, high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern, with broad ridging building in over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and Florida Peninsula, and a strong surface ridge extending
from the Atlantic across central Florida. This stacked ridging will
favor warm and dry conditions, with afternoon high temperatures
running several degrees above normal, and rain free conditions
holding. Apart from the heat, the main weather concern will be for
some patchy fog this morning over the Nature Coast.

On Friday, a shortwave trough will swing through the northeastern
US, followed quickly by another shortwave Saturday night and Sunday.
At the surface, this will result in a cold front pushing into
northern Florida Friday and temporarily stalling out, then getting a
secondary push Saturday and Saturday night to clear the forecast
area. This will cause increasing rain chances early Friday through
Saturday morning, then drier air fills in for the rest of the
weekend. The frontal boundaries will also moderate temperatures.

Monday and Tuesday, another shortwave will eject out of the southern
plains and into the southeastern US, allowing a surface low to
develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly low level flow
ahead of this system will result in building moisture and increasing
rain chances Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 801 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with a seabreeze
setting up in the afternoon for all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through Thursday night, with south and southeast flow less than 15
knots, turning onshore with the afternoon seabreeze. Dry air will
prevent significant rain chances. The ridge will shift south Friday
through the weekend as a couple of fronts push southeast into the
waters. This will result in winds briefly increasing on Friday to
around Exercise Caution levels and turning to westerly and then
northerly. Rain chances will also increase on Friday and Saturday
with the frontal passages.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Relative humidity will drop to near critically low levels this
afternoon. Even drier air is forecast to fill in on Thursday
afternoon with a few hours of relative humidity percentages below
35 expected over the interior. However, wind speeds are not
forecast to be fast enough to cause Red Flag conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  89  77 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  93  74  91  75 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  96  74  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
SRQ  89  74  88  76 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  93  69  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  89  77  87  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard