366
FXUS63 KTOP 081925
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps
  in the lower to mid 70s, warming into the upper 70s to lower
  80s this weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms chances return late Sunday through
  Wednesday with a 30 to 60 percent chance

- At this time, the severe weather chances will remain south of
  the region, across Texas early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Early this afternoon, an upper low was centered across the
central portions of SD/NE, with an upper perturbation lifting
northeast across western MO into northwest AR. A complex of
severe storms was shifting east, south of St.Louis, into the MS
River Valley along and south of a surface warm front.

Tonight through Saturday night:

The upper low across southern SD will shear apart with the northern
stream section becoming a positive tilt H5 trough extending from the
Ontario Canada, southwest into eastern NE by 00Z FRI. The southern
stream section of the H5 trough will retrograde southwest into the
Four Corners Region and amplify. A northern stream H5 trough will
dig southeast across central Canada into the Great Lakes and
phase with the positive tilt H5 trough across New England. As
the positive tilt H5 trough digs southeast across MO, there may
be enough ascent for a few afternoon showers or possibly a few
thunderstorms across the far northeast counties, along the NE
border, late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. These
storms will not be severe as MLCAPES will be below 500 J/KG.

Expect cooler and drier weather through the period, with highs in
the 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s.


Sunday through Wednesday:

The southern stream H5 trough across the southwestern US will shift
east across the central and southern Plains. Ascent ahead of the H5
trough along with richer moisture advection will cause showers and
thunderstorms to develop across western half of the state. These
showers and thunderstorms will move east into the CWA Sunday evening
and continue through early Tuesday morning as the upper trough
slowly drifts east-southeast across KS/OK. At this time the stronger
H5 Jet max will remain across TX, so our vertical windshear will be
rather weak. The surface low will also track southeast from
southwest KS into eastern OK. Thus, most storms will remain
elevated. Therefore due to both weak vertical wind shear and
instability, these storms do not appear to be severe Sunday
night into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday afternoon, an upper trough will dig onshore across the
the Pacific Northwest, and then dig southeast across the central
Rockies into the central and southern Plains Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The combination isentropic lift and DCVA will provide
strong ascent for periods of showers and perhaps a few elevated
thunderstorms. The probability of precipitation will range
between 30 to 60 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Expect VFR conditions. North-northwest winds will increase over
10 KTS this afternoon with some minor gusts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan