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000
FXUS64 KTSA 172329
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A nice warm afternoon is unfolding across the region, with
temperatures topping out in the mid 80s for most locations today.
Increasing moisture is noted behind a retreating warm front
lifting northward across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
through the evening hours. Leading edge of higher dewpoint air is
currently draped near Highway 412 from near Tulsa eastward to
between Fayetteville and Fort Smith. This warm front will continue
to lift northward through the late afternoon and evening as a
subtle mid level vort max moves along the OK/KS border. This could
spawn an isolated storm or two near the border this evening, but
higher probabilities will exist further north into eastern Kansas.
If a storm does form, it will have the potential to be severe,
with large hail the main threat, before quickly moving northeast
into Kansas. Otherwise, a warm night is expected, with increasing
southerly winds, especially across northeast Oklahoma in advance
of an approaching cold front. Some more patchy fog could develop
from I-40 southward overnight tonight within the moisture rich
environment, but more wind should keep any fog fairly isolated to
more sheltered valley locations tonight as compared to what we saw
this morning.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Attention will turn to the potential for severe weather across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on Thursday as an advancing
strong cold front moves through during the afternoon. Most
guidance has come into consistent agreement on frontal timing
tomorrow afternoon, with the front entering far northeast
Oklahoma during the mid morning hours and advancing southeast and
exiting the forecast area by mid evening. Warm and moist
conditions ahead of the front, will provide an environment
favorable for severe weather across the region. Rapid warming
ahead of the front Thursday morning will help erode a cap that
will be in place and scattered thunderstorm development is
expected along the frontal boundary as early as 11am-noon possibly
across portions of northeast Oklahoma along the I-44 corridor.
Increasing coverage of storms is forecast as the front progresses
southeast into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas later
Thursday afternoon into a largely uncapped environment. Steep
lapse rates in the hail growth zone along with ample deep layer
shear would support large to very large hail potential with any
storms that develop...especially through mid afternoon as storms
should remain more discrete. One inhibiting factor would be how
long storms can be maintained ahead of the advancing cold front,
but largely zonal flow aloft and shear vectors oriented
perpendicular to the boundary would support at least some
movement of storms off the boundary and being able to sustain more
robust updrafts capable of large hail. Meager low level shear
will diminish the tornado potential, but its not zero, especially
in areas of locally backed sfc winds do to terrain or mesoscale
boundaries/storm interactions. Storms could grow more upscale
along the boundary later in the afternoon/evening and pose more
of a wind threat before exiting southeast Oklahoma by mid evening.

Much cooler and breezy conditions will follow the frontal passage
Thursday night and will last into the weekend. another upper wave
will track southeast from the Central Plains from Friday night
into the weekend and bring another round of showers and scattered
thunderstorms to the region. Best chances will stay across
southeast Oklahoma, where locally heavy rainfall could occur from
multiple rounds of showers through Sunday. Mid level ridging build
in from late Sunday into the early part of next week, with a
warming trend. More unsettled weather arrives for the middle part
of the week as western CONUS troughing takes hold and shower and
storm chances return to the region.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the evening, before low
ceilings begin to spread back north around 10-12z with widespread
MVFR conditions impacting most sites. A decrease in wind speeds
expected most of the night, though some increase can be expected
by Thursday morning. A strong cold front will arrive in northeast
OK by around 18z Thu, eventually reaching KFSM near 00z. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to fire near the boundary in the
18-20z time frame, with W AR sits along with KMLC most likely to
see impacts. NW winds and low clouds expected behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  85  48  66 /   0  40   0  10
FSM   67  88  55  71 /   0  60  20  20
MLC   71  86  53  68 /   0  50  20  20
BVO   64  81  43  66 /  20  40   0  10
FYV   66  87  47  68 /   0  60  20  10
BYV   65  87  48  67 /   0  60  20  10
MKO   67  86  50  69 /   0  50  10  20
MIO   66  81  45  65 /  20  70  10  10
F10   69  86  50  68 /  10  40  10  20
HHW   67  84  56  68 /   0  60  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14