Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220428
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1128 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Tonight several subtle upper level waves will rotate around a 500
mb low as it moves east across Oklahoma and Kansas. This will not
only keep the clouds around but it will also allow for a few
light rain showers, especially during the evening and east of
Dodge City. After midnight the 500 mb low will begin to move into
the southern Mississippi Valley and an upper level ridge will
begin to exit the Rockies and move out into the West Central High
Plains. At the surface an area of high pressure will build in to
Western Kansas. Clearing skies from west to east will be possible
towards daybreak in extreme western Kansas along with light winds
and even some patchy fog. Lows tonight will range from the 30s
west of Dodge where the lighter winds will be late tonight to
around 40 east of Dodge were the cloud cover is expected to linger
through daybreak.

Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny, dry and warmer as the
surface high slides east, and low pressure at the surface begins
to develop along the lee of the Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Monday will be breezy and warmer as the trough of low pressure at
the surface deepens across eastern Colorado in response to our
next approaching upper level trough. As this next upper level
trough crosses the Rockies and moves out into the plains a cold
front will drop south into western Kansas Monday night. This will
bring another chance for precipitation to the area gIven the
moisture and lift along the mid level baroclinic zone ahead of
this upper level trough as it crosses western Kansas late Monday
night/early Tuesday.

Cooler temperatures will briefly return to western Kansas Tuesday
as the cold front moves across the Southern Plains and an area of
high pressure builds into the Central Plains. A warming trend can
then be expected midweek ahead of another approaching cold front.
This next cold front will bring another round cooler temperatures
to Western Kansas for the end of the work week. At this time it
appears moisture return may struggle to make it back this far
north so precipitation chances late week appears lower than
earlier in the week but not completely out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The slow-moving upper low will continue to pull away from
southwest Kansas through the period. The greatest challenge in the
TAF will be how long to hold on to IFR/MVFR ceilings, as they
slowly dissolve through the first half of this TAF period. It
appears that all terminals should see VFR after 12Z, with greatest
uncertainty in flight category in the 09-12Z time frame. Another
complicating element is development of patchy/areas of fog should
ceiling scatter out, particularly at GCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  60  39  68 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  36  60  36  69 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  36  63  39  72 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  37  62  38  71 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  36  59  40  66 /  30   0   0   0
P28  40  62  44  69 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid


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