Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 210825
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
425 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under mostly clear skies, light northeast winds, temperatures are
in the lower to mid 70s along the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, local
radars are absent of any precipitation echoes in our county
warning area. Surface wise, a huge continental region of high
pressure is centered in the upper Great Lakes with a sprawling
ridge nosing down the entire Eastern United States and into north
Florida. Across our marine district, winds are northeast to east
at 6 knots or less except slightly higher on the Florida Straits.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
A large continental region of high pressure covering the Eastern
United States will slide into the Western Atlantic Ocean late this
weekend and early next week. Meanwhile, an elongated area of low
pressure will slowly move through the Southeast United States.
With that, although moisture will increase below 700 mb wind
fields appear not to be impressive or very organized. In addition,
the main mid and upper level ascent should remain north of our
region. With that, no pops will be inserted today with only
isolated 20 percent pops beginning tonight. Temperatures will be
above normal with daytime highs in the mid 80s and overnight lows
in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
The aforementioned surface low pressure system will reform along
the extreme Southeast United States and then gradually intensify
as it moves up along the Eastern Seaboard. Meanwhile, an
associated trough may push through our region Tuesday night, with
weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico to follow. With that,
it appears the deepest cyclonic flow may prompt chance pops with
the mention of lightning storms Tuesday night, otherwise, only
isolated pops will be retained. Above normal temperatures on
Tuesday will cool slightly on Wednesday and perhaps Thursday
before returning to a tad above normal by the end of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to gentle east winds will become gentle to moderate by late
today, before moderate to occasional fresh winds will likely
prompt an Exercise Caution headline on the Straits of Florida
tonight and Sunday night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate mostly
southeast winds can be anticipated this weekend and early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through at least the next
24 hours. Brief, MVFR ceilings, based at around 2,500 feet, are
conceivable at EYW and MTH late tonight and Saturday morning. This
possibility is not great enough to place in the terminal forecasts
at this time. Sustained northwest to north winds near 10 knots from
just off the surface to about 3,000 feet will veer to east and
increase to near 15 knots Saturday evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1987, the daily record low temperature of 63 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 85 78 84 78 / 0 10 20 20
Marathon 86 78 86 78 / 0 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....BS

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