347
FXUS64 KLZK 072353
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
653 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Main concern for this forecast period, is severe thunderstorm/heavy
rain potential for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

19z subjective surface analysis reveals a weak nearly stationary
boundary along the I-40 corridor. this feature will move northward
overnight. A few convective cells are possible during the overnight
hours, as an increasing low level jet supporting a warm air
advection pattern acts to force a corresponding convective response.

A cold front will approach the state on Wednesday. and is expected
to force convection, some some severe. Convective inhibition will be
weak at the start of the day, and may allow for some activity early
in the day.

The strongest cells will develop and progress eastward during the
mid afternoon and early evening period.  Several CAM runs continue
to indicate the upscale formation of a QLCS during the late
afternoon hours. All possible severe phenomena will be possible with
the strongest storms.  A strong signal for large hail is indicated
by a number of forecast parameters.

Widely scattered activity is expected on Thursday, across mainly
southern sections, supported by the exiting frontal boundary.  The
intensity of this activity will be much weaker.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Long term starts with a cold front to the south of the state which
will keep rain chances in the forecast...mainly across the southern
portions of the state. By Friday morning, winds aloft will become
more northwesterly and finally push the front away from the state
which will allow surface High pressure to build into the region.
This will lead to a prolonged stretch of dry weather through much of
the weekend. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80`s with
lows in the 50`s and 60`s.

Rain chances will return to the forecast towards the end of Mother`s
Day as High pressure departs to the east and a storm system
approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conds wl prevail into the early mrng hrs on Wed. CAMS cont to
show scattered convection forming later this evening acrs parts of
central AR, with VCTS included for now. Low clouds are expected to
incrs fm the south later tngt, with combo MVFR/IFR conds returning
towards daybreak ovr most of the FA. Another round of storms is fcst
to track close to the MO border later Wed mrng into early Wed aftn,
with PROB30 groups included at KHRO and KBPK. Yet another round of
storms wl form over NW AR late in the day Wed, with main impact
affecting the FA beyond this fcst PD.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...44