Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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998
FXUS64 KMAF 260439
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1139 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be out of
a southerly direction at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts during
Saturday.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 26/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals through
27/00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An amplified mid-level ridge axis will slowly move across the area
thru Sat and remain across the ern half of the CWFA on Sunday. Flow
will de-amplify some by Mon, but this results in more of a w-sw
mid- level flow serving to amplify low-level thermal ridge and
pushing dry air pretty far e through Friday of next week. As such
it will be unseasonably hot, even dangerously hot! Dangerously hot
not only be because of just how hot it will be, but also because
of extended duration along with temps mostly getting hotter and
hotter. Reminds us of 2011 when the hotter it got, the drier it
got and the drier it got, the hotter it got! We`ve looked at all
the model 85h temps and high temps will easily be 16 degrees over
85h temps. As an example 31-32C on Saturday will yield highs of
105 and 34-35C Wed-Thur could yield 110? We see this as a target
to improve over Superblend. We may not go as high as we could as
Td and wind direction may shave off a few a degrees here an there.
There may be a day or 2 were the Td stay high enough for very
high based convection to result in locally strong winds and dry
lightning, but not a good predictive signal in models?

So along with the likelihood of the hot wx we have issued heat
advisories for the parts of the Permian Basin and Low Rolling
Plains for Sat and Sun. Advisories may eventually be needed along
the Rio Grande?

FIRE WEATHER...
Recently fuel moistures has made a strong recovery across most all
areas, including the PB, and ERC-G has fallen well below critical
levels. Based on our forecast of hot/dry wx we expect to see a V
bottom in the fuel charts over the next week. Will fuels fall back
into critical dryness levels? Eventually we think they will,
especially across the mountains and nearby plains as we see
accelerated drying (poor recovery overnight) almost each night over
the next week. As far as fire wx the atmosphere will mostly be a
dry/unstable state. Generally on a day to day basis we will have
to assess potential for high based storms that could result in dry
lightning/gusty winds, the predictive signal is not strong in
this pattern.

CLIMATE...
Record # 100 degree days May
1996, 2000: 9
2018: 5 days, based on forecast could be 11 by end of month

Record # 105 degree days May
1989: 3
2000, 2011: 2
2018: 0, based on forecast could be 5 by end of month

Record hottest May temps
1989, 2000: 108
1953, 2011: 107
1998, 2008: 106

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72 105  74 105 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       62 104  67 104 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         72 103  75 106 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72 104  74 107 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  93  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          64 102  69 103 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          54  94  60  97 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           72 105  74 106 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         73 105  74 106 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           67 106  71 107 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Scurry-Upton.

&&

$$

70/10/70



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