Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 220458
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1158 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Beautiful Saturday weather-wise, as temperatures have risen into the
upper 60s to lower 70s as of 2pm. High clouds continue to increase
ahead of the incoming system. Some returns have been noted on
radar in the Ozark foothills that are likely just virga due to the
abundance of dry air in the low levels.

Upper level low is currently centered near the Colorado/Kansas
border, and will slowly translate east/southeastward. By Sunday
night it should be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi with an
associated surface low also located well to our south. The whole
system will attempt to pivot northeastward on Monday, and depending
on the model of choice, the surface low may nudge up into west
KY. The GFS/NAM show this, while the Canadian/ECMWF keep it south.
This will dictate how much, if any instability may be present. The
further north solution would provide at least some slight thunder
chances, particularly across the Pennyrile region on Monday. For
now, not confident enough in the further north solution, and left
thunder chances out.

A few showers will be possible this evening, mainly across southeast
Missouri, with some attempt to sneak into bordering areas of IL/KY
closer to midnight. Moistening of the atmospheric column will
continue through the night, with coverage of rain ramping up towards
morning from the southwest. Most model guidance indicates rain
spreading north across essentially the entire area. However, the 12z
Canadian has come in further south and basically keeps the rain
confined to southeast Missouri and west Kentucky until later Sunday
night. Will likely be more of a scattered showery nature to PoPs
on Monday, with a gradual decrease into Monday night.

As far as total QPF tonight through Monday night, current
forecast continues to nudge up totals slightly, now ranging from
just under a half inch along the I-64 corridor to near 2 inches
along the Arkansas and Tennessee borders. The 12z GFS and GEFS
mean have both increased their total QPF forecast from yesterday`s
runs. This matches up fairly well with other 12z model data.
There are even hints that there may be some locally higher
amounts, closer to the 2.5 to 3 inch range. Falling over a 36 to
48 hour period, not expecting much in the way of flooding
concerns. However, may see some rises along smaller creeks and
streams, and low land and flood prone areas could fill or
overspill where heavier rains materialize.

Temperatures will remain elevated at night during the short term
due to clouds and rain. At the same time, high temperatures will
struggle to reach 60 for some areas on Sunday, particularly
across the south half of the region. Won`t be much better on
Monday, generally in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

An active pattern is anticipated. The overall pattern will favor mid
level trof over the east U.S. and ridging over the west ahead of a
forecast closed low off the Pacific Coast. Differences exist mainly
with timing. Therefore the entire long term will blend EC/ENENS with
GFS/GEFS solutions from 00z and 12z to account for uncertainty. Our
temperature and cloud forecast will follow suit. We incorporated
more of the WPC cloud forecast for Thursday through Friday night.

The models move a weak closed low from central KY/TN east Tuesday
through Tuesday night. Will linger a slight to low chance PoPs
across the area through the day, dry Tuesday night. Very low chance
PoPs maintained for Wednesday. The GFS shows the wettest solution
while the EC is drier. Both models depict a s/wv moving across the
area. Therefore we will maintain the low PoPs. Next chance of
showers will either be Thursday night or Friday depending on if you
believe the faster GFS or slower ECMWF. Each model maintains their
timing. As a result we will split the difference and keep slight
chances going both periods until solutions converge. All the models
depict return dry weather for Friday night and Saturday. The chance
of thunder is not zero through the period. But chances are too low
to include at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Look for high VFR conditions to slowly lower to 4-8 kft range as
light showers move in from southwest to northeast Sunday morning.
Expect MVFR cigs/vsbys to develop Sunday 18-22Z over southern
routes as precip becomes more prevalent, and may even approach IFR
conditions thereafter. Easterly winds 5-10 kts will pick up into
the 10-20 kt range on Sunday/Sunday evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM



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