Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 230347
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1147 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure should maintain dry weather through most of Monday
as it slides east. Slow moving low pressure will return rain
chances Monday night through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Ridging should maintain dry weather tonight. Above average
temperatures are expected tonight as a light east wind should
limit radiational cooling. A low level inversion should also
limit E-SE downsloping wind gust potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday will remain dry during the day but rain chances will
begin later in the day as an upper low approaches the forecast
area. Rain is likely for much of Tuesday as the low transitions
over the Ohio valley before beginning to taper off early
Wednesday morning as latest progs place the low east of the
forecast area at that point. Rain amounts are forecast to range
from just under a half inch across north of I-80...increasing to
the south with 1-1.25 possible across southern zones.


Temperatures will max out a few degrees above climatology Monday
before the rain arrives. Cooler temperatures due to the clouds
and rain are figured for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A followup shortwave will kick a cold front across the region on
Wednesday, keeping temperatures a shade below normal into
Thursday. Cannot rule out a few snowflakes mixing in Wednesday
night/Thursday morning behind the front, as 850 mb temperatures
could drop below 0C once again. A dry interlude is possible
Thursday afternoon/evening in brief surface ridging.
Precipitation chances return Friday and Saturday as another
shortwave arrives. Some model solutions close this off into an
upper low over or near our region, while others are more
progressive. In any case, below normal temperatures should
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Downbursts of strong
winds...up to 30-35kts at times may be experienced at LBE/MGW
due to high winds aloft sloping down from the ridges from the
east. Gusty conditions after sunrise is expected at all sites after
sunrise as daytime mixing occurs and we start to feel the
affects of that low pressure system to the south more.


OUTLOOK...
Clouds will quickly move in Monday evening from the southwest.
MVFR/IFR conditions are likely Mon night through Wed for all
sites with slow moving low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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