Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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896
FXUS65 KRIW 250450
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1050 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...This evening through Sunday
Issued at 129 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

A weak high pressure ridge with southwest flow aloft over the area
will limit moisture and instability supporting isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the mountains this
evening and again on Friday.  As a Pacific low pressure trough off
of the west coast of California and the Pacific Northwest shifts
slowly east inland, moisture and instability will increase in the
southwest flow Saturday bringing an increase in showers and
thunderstorms.  Temperatures will warm through late day Saturday
and then begin to cool Saturday night.  As the trough continues
to move east towards western and central Wyoming Saturday night
and Sunday, Showers will become more widespread with embedded
isolated thunderstorms. Areas of heavy precipitation will likely
occur being highly terrain influenced in distribution.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday
Issued at 129 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

The upper level low over Northern Utah will eject to the northeast
Sunday night into Monday. Medium-range models show a heavier band
of precipitation moving north into Montana and NW Wyoming Sunday
night. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
blossom over the area Monday afternoon and evening, possibly
continuing well into Monday night as the main upper low over the
Great Basin begins to lift out across the area. Heavier, more
organized precipitation should be mostly east of the area over the
northern and central plains on Tuesday with chances of showers
and thunderstorms lingering mostly over the west and north.

An active weather pattern looks to close out the month of May, as
next Pacific storm system will move onto the northwest coast on
Wednesday, and into the Intermountain West/northern Rockies on
Thursday. Accounting for models typical fast bias, most areas east
of the Divide should see a break in precipitation on Wednesday,
with chances of showers and thunderstorms returning on Thursday.
The western mountains will continue to see chances of showers and
thunderstorms through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

West of the Continental Divide...KJAC/KBPI/KPNA/KRKS

Isolated showers will end by 09Z in NW WY. Patchy fog is possible in
the Jackson valley through 15Z and will have VCFG in the Jackson
terminal. Otherwise dry weather will occur through 23Z Friday. Very
isolated showers or storms will occur over the NW WY mountains after
23Z through 03Z Saturday. Expect VFR conditions at the terminal
sites through the period with no VCSH/VCTS in the forecast.

East of the Continental Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL

VFR conditions will occur through the forecast period. Dry weather
is forecast at the terminal sites.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 129 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

A weak high pressure ridge with southwest flow aloft over the area
will limit moisture and instability supporting isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the mountains this
evening and again on Friday.  As a Pacific low pressure trough off
of the west coast of California and the Pacific Northwest shifts
slowly east inland, moisture and instability will increase in the
southwest flow Saturday bringing an increase in showers and
thunderstorms.  Temperatures will warm through late day Saturday
and then begin to cool Saturday night.  As the trough continues
to move east towards western and central Wyoming Saturday night
and Sunday, Showers will become more widespread with embedded
isolated thunderstorms. Areas of heavy precipitation will likely
occur being highly terrain influenced in distribution.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Hulme
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...Baker



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